[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 301703
SWODY2
SPC AC 301701

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1201 PM CDT FRI JUL 30 2004

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 W
RRT 30 SE STC 25 S MKT 15 NW SUX 65 ENE ANW 55 N OLF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW LRD SHV 50 WSW
OWB 35 ESE IND 15 SE JXN 30 W MBS MBL 30 SSE OSH 15 ENE EMP 35 WNW
PVW 10 S ELP ...CONT... 70 WSW TUS 45 SW GUP 35 SSE MTJ 40 SSW CAG
40 NE VEL 30 N ENV 20 W BAM 25 SSE NFL 55 SSE TVL 20 NE SCK 30 NW
RBL 20 ENE MFR 30 ENE RDM 30 N PUW 85 WNW FCA.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN
PLAINS...

...NRN PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL MOVE EWD
TONIGHT AS NWLY FLOW BECOMES ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS WRN CANADA IS FORECAST TO DIVE SEWD
TONIGHT SPREADING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON.

AS HEIGHTS FALL...A SFC LOW SHOULD DEVELOP IN ND WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING WWD INTO MT AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS MN.
THESE BOUNDARIES WILL FOCUS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SCATTERED
STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON ACROSS ND AND CNTRL SD. THE
STORMS WILL SLOWLY SPREAD SEWD REACHING WRN MN BY THE EVENING HOURS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS
ERN SD AND SWRN MN SOUTH OF THE SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT. WITH SFC
DEWPOINT IN THE 60S F...MLCAPE VALUES WILL LIKELY REACH 2000 J/KG
ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS. IN ADDITION...DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES
SHOULD RANGE FROM 50 KT ACROSS ND TO ABOUT 35 KT ACROSS SW MN WHICH
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.0 TO 8.0 C/KM WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. WIND DAMAGE WITH
AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO EXIST ESPECIALLY WITH STRONG
CELLS THAT TRACK SEWD ALONG PREEXISTING BOUNDARIES.

...NORTHEAST US...
AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...REACHING FAR WRN NY AND ERN OH BY SATURDAY EVENING. A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS NY AND PA AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WILL BE THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS
FEATURE COMBINED WITH WEAK INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 25 TO 30 KT AND THIS COMBINED WITH
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WILL FAVOR MULTICELLULAR CONVECTIVE
LINES. THE RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL...HOWEVER...THE WIND PROFILES AND SHEAR MAY BE ENOUGH FOR
A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT NEAR PEAK HEATING.

..BROYLES.. 07/30/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.