[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 291717
SWODY2
SPC AC 291716

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1216 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2004

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W
FOD 35 WSW SPW 30 WSW RWF 45 W DLH 45 ENE DLH 10 SE IWD 20 NW AUW 20
NNW ALO 15 SE FOD 40 W FOD.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W
DHT 30 SSE RTN 40 E ALS 30 WSW COS 20 SE DEN 25 SSE AKO 30 SSW GLD
45 W GCK 35 S EHA 25 W DHT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E DUG 45 NW 4SL 15
NW ASE 10 SSW LAR 40 WNW VTN 35 W ATY 10 ENE INL ...CONT... 50 WNW
3B1 10 ESE PWM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SE MN...NRN IA
AND NW WI...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS...

...SE MN/NRN IA/NWRN WI...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL SHIFT SLOWLY
SEWD INTO MN ON DAY 2. THIS WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LARGE-SCALE
SUPPORT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON FRIDAY. THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL LIKELY BE WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW THAT MOVES ACROSS SERN MN INTO NWRN WI
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

21Z FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR FRIDAY IN THIS AREA SHOW MLCAPE VALUES
AROUND 1000 J/KG WITH ABOUT 35 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS COMBINATION
SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR MULTICELLS. 500 MB TEMPS OF -12 TO -14C AND
LAPSE RATES OF 6.5 TO 7.0 C/KM WILL FAVOR ISOLATED HAIL WITH THE
STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS CNTRL MN AND NW IA MOVING EWD INTO NCNTRL IA AND
NWRN WI BY EARLY EVENING. THE BEST THREAT OF SEVERE SHOULD BE
CONCENTRATED NEAR PEAK HEATING.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SERN ID AND WRN WY AS
SEEN IN THE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FIELDS...WILL MOVE SEWD OVERNIGHT AND
SHOULD BE POSITIONED ACROSS ERN CO AND WRN KS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS FEATURE MAY PROVIDE ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SEVERE STORMS
ON DAY 2 ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. THE MOUNTAINS WILL PROVIDE LIFT
NECESSARY FOR STORM FORMATION BY MIDDAY AND THIS CONVECTION SHOULD
SPREAD SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS SE CO AND FAR NE NM DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

ONE ISSUE THAT COULD BE PROBLEMATIC FOR SEVERE STORM FORMATION WILL
BE THE FORECAST INSTABILITY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SE CO AND FAR NE
NM SHOW LESS THAN 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE BETTER
INSTABILITY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS ACROSS
SW KS AND THE NE TX PANHANDLE. HOWEVER...A SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE
POSSIBLE IF THE 35 TO 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR MATERIALIZES. THIS
COMBINED WITH THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD PROMOTE A HAIL
THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. LCL HEIGHTS ABOVE 700 MB WOULD
RESULT IN HIGH BASED STORMS WHICH COULD ALSO HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE NEAR PEAK HEATING.

...LOWER OH VALLEY...
AN MCS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS MO AT THE BEGINNING OF DAY 2
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN ERN KS AND WRN MO. AS THIS
FEATURE MOVES NEWD INTO IL...STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY SPREAD NEWD
ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY DURING THE DAY. ALTHOUGH SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO BE WEAK ACROSS SE MO...SRN IL AND SRN IND...HIGH SFC
DEWPOINTS...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT MAY
PROMOTE A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT NEAR PEAK HEATING. UNIDIRECTIONAL
WIND PROFILES SHOULD RESULT IN MULTICELLS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG WIND GUSTS.

..BROYLES.. 07/29/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.