[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 290806
SWODY2
SPC AC 290805

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0305 AM CDT THU JUL 29 2004

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N
GRB 20 ESE VOK 35 SE FOD 30 SSE SPW 25 WNW FRM 25 NNW MSP 40 SSW DLH
30 S IWD 40 N GRB.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE
RTN 10 WNW TAD 40 WNW COS 30 ENE DEN 25 SSE AKO 45 WNW GCK 25 SE LBL
20 ESE DHT 50 SSE RTN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 E DUG 25 NNW 4SL
15 SW EGE 30 NE LAR 30 WSW VTN 10 NNE ATY 25 ENE INL ...CONT... 50
WNW 3B1 10 ESE PWM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE UPPER MS
VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS WILL MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH FRIDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATE THROUGH THIS
FEATURE. A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SASKATCHEWAN IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD INTO BASE OF THE TROUGH AND CONTINUE EWD
THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND
COLD FRONT. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM
A SURFACE LOW IN WI SWWD THROUGH NRN KS AND INTO NERN CO.


...UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN PARTS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...

WRN PORTIONS OF COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY
THURSDAY WILL STALL AND BEGIN RETREATING NWD AS A WARM FRONT LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS AND CYCLOGENESIS
ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL
ALLOW RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S TO ADVECT NWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AHEAD OF
SECONDARY COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. STORMS MAY
BE IN PROGRESS FRIDAY MORNING FROM PARTS OF THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO WRN
MN WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

ATMOSPHERE DOWNSTREAM FROM THE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE AS
MOISTURE RETURNS NWD WITH RETREATING WARM FRONT. MODEST LAPSE RATES
AND POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS TO PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON MAY LIMIT
OVERALL MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY...WITH MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500
J/KG POSSIBLE. STORMS MAY INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE EWD AND THE
ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES DURING THE AFTERNOON. 30-40 KT MID LEVEL
FLOW ON SRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 30-40 KT
DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. STRONGEST LOW
LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED IN VICINITY OF THE RETREATING WARM FRONT.
PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND...HOWEVER AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS MOVING ALONG AND
INTERACTING WITH THE ENHANCED SHEAR ALONG THE WARM FRONT.

...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...

WEAK ELY UPSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNDERNEATH 30 KT NWLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER CO. OROGRAPHIC FORCING AUGMENTED BY SURFACE HEATING
SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED
STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ACTIVITY WILL SUBSEQUENTLY MOVE SEWD
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WITHIN THE EXPECTED DEEPLY MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER. MLCAPE FROM 1000 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ERN
CO/NE NM INTO WRN KS AND THE TX PANHANDLE. THE 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 35 TO
40 KT WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH MID EVENING. POTENTIAL
LIMITING FACTOR FOR MORE THAN ISOLATED ACTIVITY COULD BE TENDENCY
FOR RIDGE TO BUILD AS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EWD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
AREA.


...PART OF MID MS THROUGH LOWER OH VALLEY...

SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE OK/TX AREA WILL LIFT NEWD INTO
THE LOWER OH VALLEY FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL JET ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE
WILL LIKELY ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES. POTENTIAL FOR STORMS
ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO ROTATE MAY CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...WITH TIME THIS WILL LIFT AWAY FROM THE RICHER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND WITH POOR LAPSE RATES EXPECTED...SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED BY MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES.

..DIAL.. 07/29/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.