[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 280743
SWODY2
SPC AC 280742

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0242 AM CDT WED JUL 28 2004

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E
RTN 20 S ALS 30 ENE ASE 15 SSE RIW 45 ESE WRL 35 NE DGW 30 SW SNY 25
NW EHA 30 E RTN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N ANJ 35 SSE CGX
35 SW TBN 30 N LIT 10 E GLH 35 E TUP 35 E LUK PSB 10 SSW JFK
...CONT... 40 WSW FHU 15 SE GUP 45 SE CNY 30 ENE ELY 30 N OWY 25 NW
27U 30 SW BIL 15 E RAP 15 N FSD 20 SE EAU 20 SE CMX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE PSM 35 NE EFK.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF CO AND WY...

...SYNOPSIS...

BROAD UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM S CNTRL CANADA SWD INTO
THE NRN PLAINS WILL MIGRATE VERY SLOWLY E WHILE AMPLIFYING SWD AS A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATE THROUGH THIS FEATURE. COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NRN ND SWWD THROUGH WRN NEB WILL CONTINUE E
AND SWD AS A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER MT MOVES THROUGH
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY EARLY THURSDAY. 
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES SWWD THROUGH SRN KS OR NRN OK. A WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW
REGIME WILL DEVELOP IN WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS ERN CO.

...CO AND WY...

WEAK SELY UPSLOPE FLOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS ERN CO AND SE
WY IN WAKE OF SURFACE FRONT AS IT SETTLES INTO KS. THIS WILL LIKELY
MAINTAIN SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS
GIVEN DIFFUSE MOISTURE GRADIENT PRESENT IN FRONTAL ZONE. STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM CNTRL/ERN CO INTO SE WY. THE
COMBINATION OF OROGRAPHIC FORCING AND ANY DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN
THE NWLY FLOW REGIME WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE OVER
THE CNTRL ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS AS UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE
NRN PLAINS WITH 30-35 KT AT 6 KM. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT
SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THE
PRIMARY THREATS. ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD EWD THROUGH ERN CO DURING THE
EVENING. SEVERE THREAT FARTHER EAST INTO KS SHOULD BE LIMITED BY
RELATIVELY COOL LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES FROM AIR THAT WILL HAVE BEEN
STABILIZED BY EARLIER FRONTAL CONVECTION.

..DIAL.. 07/28/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.