[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 271727
SWODY2
SPC AC 271726

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT TUE JUL 27 2004

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE
CPR 30 E DGW AIA MCK P28 CSM 30 NW SPS 30 SSE ABI 20 NNW SJT 20 E
BGS LBB AMA LAA 10 NE LIC 10 N DEN 15 SE CPR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 WSW TUS 40 ESE GBN
10 SW PRC GCN CDC MLF 10 SSE SLC 10 SSE MLD TWF 80 WNW OWY 10 SE 4LW
60 SW RDM 45 NW DLS 55 ENE BLI ...CONT... 60 ENE 63S HLN BIL 4BQ RAP
15 E PHP PIR JMS 40 WSW DVL 55 NE MOT ...CONT... 55 NNW ANJ 45 E ESC
MSN 10 NNE IRK SZL JLN FYV HOT 40 WSW GLH CBM RMG PSK EKN DUJ 30 WSW
BUF.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WEDNESDAY AFTN ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS....

SLOW PROGRESSION OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE WITHIN BROADER
SCALE WEAK CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW REGIME. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION BY EARLY WEDNESDAY IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL OCCUR AS UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH
SLOWLY DIGS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER.  IN
TANDEM WITH THIS FEATURE...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH...EMBEDDED
WITHIN WEAKER SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES...WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE OUT OF
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO PLAINS...
DRYING WILL OCCUR AT MID-LEVELS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN...WHERE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME LESS NUMEROUS WEDNESDAY. 
HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE ROCKIES...AND AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AXES ACROSS THE
PLAINS.

MID-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION
SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS.  HOWEVER...STEEPER LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND STRONGER CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO
PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS...BENEATH WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY
MID/UPPER FLOW.  30 TO 40 KT NORTHWESTERLY JET DIGGING TO THE WEST
OF NORTHERN SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATELY STRONG
SHEAR PROFILES SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS IN LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW
REGIME DEVELOPING FROM THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO NORTHEAST
COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING.  CAPE UP TO AROUND 1000 J/KG APPEARS
POSSIBLE...AND SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

OTHER SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH...AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT...FROM PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS/
SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION.  WHILE
NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME AND ASSOCIATED SHEAR PROFILES
WILL BE WEAKER...DEVELOPMENT OF WARMER/DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER WITH
60S DEW POINTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MORE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT.  MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE WILL EXCEED 1000 J/KG...AND MAY
APPROACH 2000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MOST VIGOROUS STORMS...BEFORE ACTIVITY
WEAKENS WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

...NORTHEAST STATES...
BAND OF PRECIPITATION IN WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD
OFF NORTHERN/MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS WEDNESDAY...WITH MID-LEVEL
DRYING OVERSPREADING  AREAS TO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
AND ACROSS EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA/NEW YORK STATE.  THIS WILL ACCOMPANY
30 TO 40 KT SOUTHERLY JET CORE AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...AND
SURFACE HEATING MAY CONTRIBUTE TO NARROW CORRIDOR OF WEAK TO
MODERATE DESTABILIZATION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  AS MID-LEVEL
FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION NEAR TROUGH AXIS OVERSPREADS
HEATED BOUNDARY LAYER...DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS POSSIBLE.  ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE... PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL AS WELL.

..KERR.. 07/27/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.