[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 270732
SWODY2
SPC AC 270731

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0231 AM CDT TUE JUL 27 2004

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE
STC 45 NNE RST 35 NW CNK 45 E LBL 45 SE LAA 30 SE AKO 25 NNW FCL 20
E CPR 10 WNW ANW 35 SSW AXN 50 ENE STC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NNW ANJ 30 NE GRB
15 NNE DBQ 35 SW DSM 25 ENE MHK 30 S JLN 30 SW LIT 10 N ESF 40 N GPT
25 WSW AUO 30 SW AVL 30 S AOO 30 WSW ELM 30 NNW BUF ...CONT... 45
ENE CTB MLS 50 SE REJ 30 NNE PIR 40 NE ABR 30 SSE DVL 25 S MOT 55
NNW ISN ...CONT... 80 WSW TUS 40 ESE GBN 35 ESE IGM 20 WSW GCN 80
WNW GUP CEZ 15 S EGE 30 N CAG 30 W JAC 60 NE BOI 30 SSW BNO 40 W SVE
35 WSW RBL 30 ENE 4BK 45 NW DLS 55 ENE BLI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL
PLNS/LWR MO VLY...

...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS ON
WEDNESDAY...WHILE HEIGHTS REBOUND SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. 
UPPER SYSTEM WHICH WILL GLANCE THE DAKOTAS LATER TODAY SHOULD LIFT
NE TOWARD HUDSON BAY ON WEDNESDAY AS UPSTREAM IMPULSE DROPS SE INTO
SASKATCHEWAN.  IN THE EAST...TROUGH NOW OVER THE OH VLY EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS E/NE ACROSS THE LWR GRT LKS/NRN APLCNS. 
FARTHER S...A BROAD LOW LATITUDE TROUGH IS EVOLVING ATTM IN WEAK SRN
STREAM JET OVER THE SRN GRT BASIN/SRN RCKYS.  THE TROUGH SHOULD
CONTINUE SLOWLY E INTO THE SRN PLNS BY LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY
THURSDAY.

AT LWR LEVELS...A SERIES OF WEAKENING COLD FRONTS WILL USHER
COOLER/DRIER AIR TO THE NRN RCKYS/PLNS.  THE SRN-MOST FRONT SHOULD
EXTEND FROM ERN ND THROUGH CNTRL SD/NW NEB AND ERN WY AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD. FARTHER S..SURFACE PATTERN WILL PROBABLY BECOME
COMPLICATED BY A SERIES OF WEAKER SURGES/LEE TROUGH SEGMENTS WHICH
WILL TEND TO MOVE E/SE ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLNS IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASED WLY FLOW/SRN STREAM DISTURBANCES.

...CNTRL PLNS/LWR MO VLY...
MAIN COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN UPPER IMPULSE SHOULD SETTLE
SE ACROSS MN/ERN SD/NEB AND SE WY ON WEDNESDAY.  THE FRONT...AND ANY
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM DAY 1 CONVECTION...WILL SERVE AS
MAIN FOCUS FOR DIURNAL STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE N CNTRL STATES. 
THE GREATEST SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY...WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING
2000 J/KG...WILL LIKELY EXIST OVER PARTS OF NEB/SE SD AND WRN
KS...WHERE CONVERGENCE SHOULD ALSO BE MAXIMIZED INVOF FRONT'S
INTERSECTION WITH LEE TROUGH AND 20 KT SLY LLJ.

DEEP SHEAR WILL BE RATHER WEAK /AROUND 25 KT/. BUT EVEN WITH MODEST
SHEAR...COMBINATION OF DEEP/SUSTAINED CONVERGENCE AND STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH
HAIL/HIGH WIND.  PRESENCE OF SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL PROBABLY
LIMIT NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE CNTRL PLNS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  NEVERTHELESS...CONCENTRATED FOCUS FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT AND EXISTING POOL OF INSTABILITY SUGGEST THAT THE STORMS
WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS THAT SHOULD MOVE E/SE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF NEB/WRN KS EARLY THURSDAY.

ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING NEWD ALONG COLD FRONT INTO NW IA AND SRN/CNTRL
MN...WHERE SOMEWHAT STRONGER /30 KT/ DEEP SHEAR BUT MORE LIMITED
INSTABILITY /MLCAPE TO 1000 J PER KG/ WILL LIKELY EXIST.
FARTHER S...SCATTERED STRONG...MAINLY MULTICELL STORMS/STORM
CLUSTERS...MAY ALSO DEVELOP SWD ALONG LEE TROUGH INTO THE OK/TX
PANHANDLE REGION AND W TX...WHERE MLCAPE WILL EXCEED 2000 J/KG
BENEATH 20-25 KT SRN STREAM JET.

...MID ATLANTIC...
A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS WILL EXIST INVOF
SLOW-MOVING WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LWR GRT LKS UPPER TROUGH.
EXPECTED MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILES AND CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LIMIT LOW
LEVEL DESTABILIZATION. BUT MODERATE /40+ KT/ MEAN SWLY LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL PROVIDE AMPLE SHEAR FOR ORGANIZATION OF ANY
SUSTAINED STORMS THAT DO FORM. ANY RESULTING THREAT FOR SMALL SCALE
BOWS/DAMAGING WIND WILL BE CONDITIONAL UPON REALIZATION OF
SUFFICIENT SURFACE HEATING TO STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

..CORFIDI.. 07/27/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.