[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 241725
SWODY2
SPC AC 241724

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1224 PM CDT SAT JUL 24 2004

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE
ALS 35 WSW COS DEN 35 NNW LIC 15 SSE LIC LHX 40 ESE TAD 40 SSE RTN
30 N LVS 40 SE ALS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE CTB 3HT 35 SE
WRL DGW BFF IML 10 WNW EHA 45 ENE CVS LBB 40 SSW SPS 35 NNW ADM BVO
SGF CGI 45 SW CMH 30 SE MGW PSB 20 S JFK ...CONT... 25 WSW IPL IGM
CDC 45 SSE ELY 65 NE TPH 50 WNW BIH 40 WSW TVL RBL 30 E EKA 20 ESE
4BK 35 SSE EUG 45 N RDM 45 WNW ALW 30 NNW 63S.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FRONT
RANGE OF CO AND NERN NM...

...SYNOPSIS...
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
SLOWLY AMPLIFY AND SHIFT EWD INTO THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY...IN
RESPONSE TO A STRONGER TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE INTO THE PACIFIC
NW/BRITISH COLUMBIA. WEAK FLOW WILL COVER MUCH OF THE CONUS...
THOUGH THE WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY IN PACIFIC NW AND IN THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES/PLAINS ON THE BACKSIDE OF CENTRAL U.S.TROUGH. COLD
FRONT FROM TX EWD INTO THE CAROLINAS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY
SWD...AS EXPANSIVE SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE SRN PLAINS NEWD INTO NERN
U.S. BUILD SLOWLY SWD.

...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EWD OF CO...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL
BECOME SELY AND AID IN MAINTAINING MID 50 DEGREE DEWPOINTS. DIURNAL
HEATING SHOULD AID THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN
RESPONSE TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. HOWEVER...STORMS MAY HAVE SOME
DIFFICULTY MOVING INTO THE PLAINS...AS MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER/SELY
UPSLOPE FLOW MAY MAINTAIN LOW CLOUDS MOST OF THE DAY. STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL HAVE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS...AS STRENGTHENING NWLY MID LEVEL WINDS COUPLED WITH SELY
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL RESULT IN 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE
SHEAR AND MLCAPES NEAR 1000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT A FEW ROTATING STORMS
WITH HAIL/HIGH WIND. STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EWD INTO THE
PLAINS AND ENCOUNTER A MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.

...SRN AZ...
MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. 
MID LEVEL NELY FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS SRN AZ AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN THE UPPER HIGH OVER CA AND THE
TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. IF CLOUDS DO NOT
INHIBIT DESTABILIZATION/HEATING...STORMS SHOULD BE ABLE TO DEVELOP
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND THEN MOVE WWD ACROSS THE DESERTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH A POSSIBILITY OF STRONG WIND GUSTS.

...GULF COASTAL STATES...
STRONG HEATING IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT...RESULTING IN MLCAPES FROM 2500 TO 3500 J/KG. THE FLOW ALOFT
IS FORECAST TO BE VERY WEAK WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 10 KT.
HOWEVER...THE STRONG INSTABILITY WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW BRIEF
HAIL/WIND EVENTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

...INTERIOR PAC NW...
A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITH AFTERNOON HEATING OVER
PARTS OF THE AREA AS STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW/UPPER TROUGH BRUSHES
THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
SUGGESTIVE OF AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO.

..IMY.. 07/24/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.