[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 240701
SWODY2
SPC AC 240700

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0200 AM CDT SAT JUL 24 2004

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW
ALS 30 ENE ASE 35 NW FCL 10 WNW BFF 30 E SNY 30 W GLD 55 S LAA 25 S
RTN 25 NNW ALS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW IPL 40 W PRC
25 SW U17 25 SE PUC 30 WSW SLC 30 SE BAM 65 NW BIH 30 WSW TVL 25 SW
SVE 15 NNW RBL 30 E EKA 20 ENE 4BK 35 SSE EUG 40 NNW RDM 15 N YKM 35
NNW 4OM ...CONT... 40 NW HVR 50 SE LWT 20 S GCC 45 SE RAP LBF 20 ESE
GCK 60 SSW LBL 50 SW AMA 45 NW BGS 45 S ABI 25 NE MWL 50 ENE PRX 20
N LIT 35 SSW CGI 10 E SDF 30 NNE CRW 25 W CXY 10 E NEL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL RCKYS
AND CNTRL HI PLNS...

...SYNOPSIS...
WEAK FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE OVER THE LWR 48 ON SUNDAY AS RIDGING
PERSISTS OVER THE SERN AND SWRN STATES...AND THE MAIN BELT OF THE
WLYS REMAINS CONFINED TO CNTRL/SRN CANADA.  A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WLY
FLOW IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER...OVER THE PACIFIC NW...ON SRN FRINGE OF
STRONG IMPULSE CROSSING NRN BC/AB.  A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF W TO
NW FLOW WILL ALSO LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE CNTRL RCKYS/CNTRL PLNS AS
EXISTING TROUGH AMPLIFIES IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE RIDGING
DOWNSTREAM FROM BC/AB DISTURBANCE.

FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN NW CANADA ASSOCIATED WITH
BC/AB TROUGH WILL BE REFLECTED BY INCREASED LEE TROUGHING OVER THE
NRN/CNTRL HI PLNS IN THE U.S.  OTHERWISE...EXPANSIVE SURFACE RIDGE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SETTLE S ACROSS THE SRN PLNS...AND REMAIN
STATIONARY FROM THE MID MS VLY TO NEW ENG.

...CNTRL HI PLNS...
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO FORM IN RESPONSE TO DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING OVER THE CO/SRN WY RCKYS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ALONG ERN
PERIPHERY OF SWRN STATES RIDGE.  AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
SHOULD BE PRESENT OVER REGION TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED ACTIVITY GIVEN
EXISTING MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE...AND MINIMAL AIR MASS CHANGE
EXPECTED BETWEEN NOW AND SUNDAY.

SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW...COUPLED WITH WEAK SELY
UPSLOPE FLOW AT THE SURFACE...WILL RESULT IN A BAND OF 40 KT DEEP
NWLY SHEAR OVER THE ERN HALF OF CO.  THIS MAY ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW ROTATING STORMS WITH HAIL/HIGH WIND GIVEN STEEP
LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  AT THE SAME TIME...CONTINUED SWD
MOTION OF CNTRL PLNS RIDGE SHOULD ALLOW FOR INCREASED HEATING/LOW
LEVEL DESTABILIZATION JUST E OF THE MOUNTAINS RELATIVE TO TODAY. 
COUPLED WITH MODERATE NWLY DEEP SHEAR...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
STORMS TO SPREAD SEWD OFF THE MOUNTAINS LATER IN THE DAY.  SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO A S- OR SSE-MOVING MCS OVER SRN
CO/NRN NM SATURDAY NIGHT.

...INTERIOR PAC NW...
A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITH AFTERNOON HEATING OVER
PARTS OF ERN WA/ERN ORE/ID AND WRN MT...WHERE MODEL AND STLT DATA
SUGGEST THAT A WEAK IMPULSE WILL TRACK EWD ALONG SRN FRINGE OF FAST
WLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH BC/AB DISTURBANCE.

..CORFIDI.. 07/24/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.