[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 250729
SWODY2
SPC AC 250728

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CDT SUN JUL 25 2004

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NW DVL 10 W BIS 15
W 9V9 20 NE IML 25 N LBL 25 NNW AMA 10 S PVW 20 WNW ABI 35 E TPL 40
NNW POE 50 W JAN 20 WNW CBM 45 WSW BNA 35 NNW HOP 10 N MDH 35 N ALN
25 ENE PIA 20 NE CGX FNT 95 NNW ERI 35 ESE BUF 20 NNW IPT 30 NNE HGR
DCA 15 E SBY ...CONT... 30 NNW SAN 55 W EED 60 W GCN 50 SSE U17 40 S
CNY 35 SW PUC 40 W U24 70 NE TPH 40 ESE SVE 30 NNW RBL 40 ESE CEC 30
NNE MFR 50 ENE BNO 55 ENE S80 15 SW S06 10 ENE GEG 15 S 63S 50 NE
63S.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PATTERN WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE CYCLONIC ACROSS THE LWR 48 ON
MONDAY AS /1/ SWRN STATES RIDGE RETREATS W OFF THE CA CST.../2/ SERN
U.S. RIDGE IS SUPPRESSED BY CONTINUED AMPLIFICATION/ PROGRESSION OF
TROUGH NOW EVOLVING OVER THE CNTRL PLNS AND /3/ STRONG IMPULSE
CROSSING BC/AB LATER TODAY CONTINUES E/SE INTO SASKATCHEWAN.

AT LWR LEVELS...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SASKATCHEWAN SYSTEM
SHOULD DROP S TO THE AB/MT BORDER LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY AS
PREFRONTAL/LEE TROUGH REACHES FAR WRN ND.  IN THE EAST...GRADUAL
DEEPENING OF UPPER TROUGH LIKELY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS/INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPMENT OVER THE OH VLY.

...NRN RCKYS...
SCATTERED DIURNAL STORMS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
ID/WRN MT AND WY ON MONDAY...WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST
BENEATH 20-25 KT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW ALONG SRN FRINGE OF AB/
SASKATCHEWAN UPPER IMPULSE.  MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...AND WILL
KEEP CONVECTION HIGH-BASED.  BUT COMBINATION OF MODEST
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AND INVERTED-VEE ENVIRONMENT MAY ALLOW STORMS TO
ORGANIZE INTO A FEW SMALL FORWARD-PROPAGATING CLUSTERS WITH GUSTY
WINDS.

LATER IN THE PERIOD...A FEW STRONG STORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH AB/SASKATCHEWAN DISTURBANCE MAY CLIP NW MT.  WHILE
AMPLE DEEP SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS...UNFAVORABLE TIME OF DAY
AND LIMITED DEGREE OF CONVERGENCE SHOULD KEEP ANY SUCH ACTIVITY
ISOLATED.

...NRN/CNTRL HI PLNS...
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE INVOF LEE TROUGH OVER THE
CNTRL AND NRN HI PLNS ON MONDAY AS SLY FLOW STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE
TO SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OVER SASKATCHEWAN.  THIS WILL ENHANCE
CHANCE FOR STORM INITIATION ALONG LEE TROUGH IN ERN CO/WY...WHERE
AMPLE /35-40 KT/ DEEP NWLY SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS.  BUT
INCREASING WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO LIKELY STRENGTHEN CAP. 
THUS...OVERALL THREAT IN THIS REGION APPEARS QUITE CONDITIONAL AND
TOO LOW ATTM TO WARRANT A CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK OF SEVERE.

...AZ...
MODEST NLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN POTENTIAL FOR SWD PROPAGATION OF
DIURNAL STORMS FORMING ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM INTO THE LOWER
DESERTS.  HOWEVER...SETUP DOES NOT APPEAR CONDUCIVE TO UPSCALE 
DEVELOPMENT INTO STRONG/ORGANIZED CLUSTERS.

..CORFIDI.. 07/25/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.