[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 221726
SWODY2
SPC AC 221724

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1224 PM CDT THU JUL 22 2004

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW GLS 40 NNW BPT
10 SSE ESF 45 NNE HEZ 50 W GLH 40 NNE TXK 25 S DUA 20 NNW SEP 50 NNE
JCT HDO 20 SSE CRP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE YUM 30 ESE IGM
PGA MLF 65 NW P38 35 SSW TPH 55 S BIH 25 WNW FAT 30 NNW SAC 50 WNW
MHS 45 S EUG 60 ESE DLS 40 WNW S06 20 ESE FCA 30 SSE GTF 25 E COD 20
NW DGW 25 E CYS 45 SE LIC 35 NNW GCK 25 E MHK 15 ENE COU 50 SSW HUF
10 S DAY 10 SW CAK 20 N BFD 45 SW ART.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

UNUSUALLY STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD SEWD ACROSS ALL BUT THE
GULF COAST STATES/ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE DAY2 IN THE WAKE OF
CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH. LEADING EDGE OF THIS AIRMASS SHOULD PROVIDE
THE ONLY MEANINGFUL FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL STRONG CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

...TN VALLEY TO SRN PLAINS...

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE APPEARS TO HAVE A REASONABLE HANDLE ON SURGING
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE
WELL SOUTH OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT INTO SLOWLY WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE
AXIS.  RAPID BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING SHOULD AID CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE STRONGER INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR...DESPITE THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE FRONTAL ZONE AND THE
TENDENCY FOR POST FRONTAL THUNDERSTORMS.  PROFILES SUGGEST A FEW
STORMS MAY GENERATE LOCALLY STRONG WINDS BUT SHOULD NOT BE
PARTICULARLY EFFICIENT IN GENERATING HAIL.


...CAROLINAS TO UPSTATE NY...

ADVANCING COLD FRONT ALONG SRN INFLUENCE OF UPPER TROUGH SHOULD
ENHANCE CONVERGENCE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EARLY IN THE PERIOD
FROM UPSTATE NY INTO PA.  FORECAST VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG THUS MULTI-CELL
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS MAY STRUGGLE TO OBTAIN ORGANIZED SEVERE
LEVELS...ESPECIALLY IF SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER PREVENTS BOUNDARY
LAYER FROM DESTABILIZING SUFFICIENTLY. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
ALONG BOTH THE COLD FRONT AND FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE LEE TROUGH
INTO THE CAROLINAS.

..DARROW.. 07/22/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.