[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 211733
SWODY2
SPC AC 211732

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1232 PM CDT WED JUL 21 2004

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW
SBN 20 W FWA 15 SSW IND 20 ENE SLO 45 NE CNU 45 ENE HUT 35 WNW SLN
40 SE HSI 25 SW OMA 15 N DSM 40 ESE JVL 15 NNW SBN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW CAR 20 NW MWN
15 NW PSF 25 WNW EWR 25 SW ACY ...CONT... 25 S CRP 50 SE SAT 35 SW
CLL 25 SSE MCB 45 NNE MOB 15 E SEM 30 SSW HSV 10 WNW MKL 40 W UNO 35
ESE BVO 35 N FSI 60 NW ABI 30 ESE P07 ...CONT... 70 WSW TUS 15 W FLG
35 SSE CDC 35 S ELY 65 NE TPH 25 WSW TPH 45 NNE NID 65 NNE BFL 20
ESE SAC 55 NW RBL 40 SW MFR 55 NNW MFR 40 SW RDM 50 ENE BNO 40 SSW
S80 40 SSE S06 35 NE MSO 50 E HLN 45 NNW SHR 25 NNE GCC CDR 10 N MHN
60 ENE ANW 15 NNW OTG 15 N RST 40 NNW MSN 25 SE MKG DTW.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF KS TO IL...

...CENTRAL PLAINS TO OH VALLEY...

STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD ACROSS CANADA DURING THE DAY2
PERIOD WITH HEIGHT FALLS ONLY GLANCING THE MID MS VALLEY REGION
ALONG SRN FRINGES OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT.  RESULTANT SFC PRESSURES
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS FORCING A SHARP COLD FRONT SEWD INTO
KS...NRN MO...CENTRAL IL BY LATE AFTERNOON.  THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SURGE SOUTH OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOW ALOFT BUT LIKELY PROVIDE THE
FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY PEAK HEATING. 
FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WITHIN
MODERATELY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PROPAGATE SLOWLY
SWD...ESPECIALLY AS PRECIPITATION ALONG FRONTAL ZONE ENHANCES SEWD
MOVEMENT OF SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT AS RELATIVELY WARM VERTICAL
PROFILES DO NOT FAVOR PARTICULARLY LARGE HAIL.

...MIDDLE ATLANTIC...

LATE DAY1 ELONGATED MCS SHOULD PROPAGATE EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY
EARLY IN THE DAY2 PERIOD...BUT MOST LIKELY BE NON SEVERE AS IT MOVES
TOWARD THE CREST OF THE APPALACHIANS.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY POSE A
SEVERE THREAT DOWNSTREAM BY 18Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC AS BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS BENEATH STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR
DUE TO OFFSHORE UPPER LOW.  IF SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE CAN HOLD ALONG
LEADING EDGE OF OLD CONVECTIVE DEBRIS...ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS ACROSS VA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  THIS
AREA WILL BE CONSIDERED FOR A POTENTIAL UPGRADE AT 06Z DAY1 UPDATE
AS WED EVENING MCS SHOULD HAVE EVOLVED OVER THE OH VALLEY BY THIS
TIME AND MORE CONFIDENCE WILL EXIST IN THE AFOREMENTIONED SCENARIO.

..DARROW.. 07/21/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.