[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 201722
SWODY2
SPC AC 201720

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1220 PM CDT TUE JUL 20 2004

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW
ROC 20 SE HLG 45 SE LUK 35 ENE UIN 20 N SLN 45 SSW EAR 25 N SUX 10
SSW LSE RHI CMX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W EFK 40 WNW GFL
35 SSW IPT 25 NE EKN PSK 45 N RWI 25 SE ORF ...CONT... 60 SSE CTY
AYS AHN CHA 15 N ARG 60 N JLN 35 E P28 LBB 35 ESE P07 ...CONT... 65
WNW MFE 50 ENE COT 40 E AUS 30 NNW POE 40 NNW BTR 40 W HUM
...CONT... 45 SW TUS 30 WNW SOW 20 E BCE BIH SAC 10 S RBL 4LW 60 SW
BOI 40 E PIH 15 NE MQM BIL 45 NNW RAP ATY STC 10 SSE DLH 35 N HIB 40
W INL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO THE BC/NWRN WA COAST WILL FLATTEN
TOP OF RIDGE CURRENTLY PLANTED OVER THE NRN ROCKIES PRIOR TO THE
START OF THE PERIOD.  A SERIES OF LOWER AMPLITUDE TROUGHS WILL
PROCEED THIS SYSTEM...WITH ONE LIKELY SUPPORTING A MCS ALONG NOSE OF
SWLY LLJ INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT
THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES/NRN PLAINS STATES WILL SHIFT ESEWD
TOWARDS THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND SSWWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
LATE IN THE DAY.

...GREAT LAKES...
PRIMARY SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL FOCUS ALONG BOTH MORNING MCS AND ITS
ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW AND SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFTING ESEWD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  ETA AND ETAKF CONTINUE TO SUGGEST MCS AND ASSOCIATED
OUTFLOW WILL REMAIN ACTIVE INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN GREAT LAKES DURING
THE AFTERNOON...AS WEAK VORT MAX SHIFTS EWD.  THIS AREA WILL REMAIN
ALONG FRINGE OF STRONGER CAPPING AND WITHIN PLUME OF VERY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER /I.E. SURFACE DEW POINTS AOA 60F/...SUGGESTING A
WEAKLY CAPPED YET STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SHEAR VALUES WILL ALSO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED LINES.  EXPECT DEVELOPMENT WILL SPREAD EWD
ACROSS MI WHICH MAY SPREAD AS FAR AS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DURING
THE EVENING.  OTHER DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR ALONG OUTFLOW INTO NRN
IL/NRN IND/NWRN OH THROUGH THE EVENING.  THESE STORMS WILL HAVE FEED
OF STRONGEST INSTABILITY AND MAY PROPAGATE SSEWD TOWARDS N-CENTRAL
KY/SRN OH THROUGH THE EVENING. STRONGEST STORMS WILL PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY IF ACTIVITY EVOLVES INTO ONE OR
MORE BOW ECHOES.

SOME CONCERN REMAINS INTO THE NRN/WRN GREAT LAKES AND NRN MS RIVER
VALLEY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...WITH UNCERTAINTIES ABOUT DEGREE OF AIR
MASS RECOVERY IN WAKE OF MORNING STORMS.  BOTH ETA AND GFS SUGGEST
AXIS OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND WEAK CAPPING WILL DEVELOP
AHEAD OF FRONT NWD INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY AND WI BY MID
AFTERNOON.  GIVEN PRESENCE OF SURFACE FRONT AND 35-45 KT OF 0-6 KM
SHEAR...EXPECT AT LEAST A THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS...DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES.  AN ATTENDANT THREAT OF
TORNADOES IS ALSO EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY NEAR TRIPLE POINT OF MORNING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

...CENTRAL PLAINS...
CAPPING APPEARS TO WEAKEN ALONG COLD FRONT AS H7 THERMAL RIDGE IS
SUPPRESSED SWD AND STRONG HEATING OCCURS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY.  THIS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE FRONT FROM IA INTO PARTS OF NEB AND KS DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  THOUGH AIR MASS WILL LIKELY BECOME VERY
UNSTABLE...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN MARGINAL. 
THUS...ISOLATED/BRIEF SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP AS FAR WEST AS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  HOWEVER...PRIMARY THREAT OF ORGANIZED
MULTICELLS WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEARER THE MO RIVER VALLEY EWD.

..EVANS.. 07/20/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.