[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 200729
SWODY2
SPC AC 200728

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CDT TUE JUL 20 2004

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW
ROC UNI MVN SZL RSL GLD IML LBF BUB SUX 10 SE RST RHI CMX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE CTY AYS AHN
CHA ARG TUL CSM LBB 35 ESE P07 50 SE DRT COT 50 NNE VCT 20 SSW BPT
...CONT... 25 SSE FHU SOW SGU BIH SAC 10 S RBL 4LW 60 SW BOI TWF JAC
BIL 4BQ ATY STC 10 SSE DLH 35 N HIB 40 W INL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...

...GREAT LAKES REGION...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT OVER CENTRAL CANADA ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES STATES.  SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER EASTERN MT/WY IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON DAY1...AND INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.  ETA/GFS SOLUTIONS BOTH SUGGEST THAT A CLUSTER OF
CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER WI AT 21/12Z.  THESE
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO RE-INTENSIFY BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS
THEY SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF MI/IL/IN/OH.  STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE
VALUES OVER 3500 J/KG ACROSS THIS REGION.  THIS COMBINED WITH
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELL
STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. 

...CENTRAL PLAINS...
FARTHER WEST...SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND WESTWARD FROM MO/IL INTO
NORTHERN KS.  A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND NORTH OF BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A RATHER WEAK CAP. 
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN KS/NEB
AND SPREAD EASTWARD ALONG BOUNDARY DURING THE EVENING. LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER CELLS.

..HART.. 07/20/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.