[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 191730
SWODY2
SPC AC 191729

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT MON JUL 19 2004

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM INL 60
S DLH 25 ESE VOK 35 NW CGX 40 NE BMI 30 WNW SPI 10 NNW IRK 25 ESE
OMA 15 ESE YKN 35 NNW 9V9 30 NNE MBG 65 NNW DVL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NE CMX 40 N GRB 35
NE MKG 25 NNE MTC ...CONT... 10 WSW GLS 45 SE POE 30 ESE MCB 45 S
SEM 35 ENE CSG 10 NNW AHN 25 NNE SPA 40 SSW BLF 25 SSE JKL 45 NW CSV
10 NE HOP 30 SSE BLV 15 ENE JEF 25 SSW OJC 15 NNE P28 60 SW GAG 50 S
LBB P07 ...CONT... 45 W FHU 40 WNW SAD PRC 55 NW BLH BFL SAC 35 NW
MHS 60 SW RDM 45 SW S80 GTF 65 ENE HVR.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO IL...

...NRN PLAINS TO IL...

UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE ROCKIES WILL FLATTEN ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS AS SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS MT...THEN TURN
SEWD TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION.  THESE FEATURES
ARE NOT PARTICULARLY WELL DEFINED BUT LIKELY WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL
CLUSTERS OF LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM SD...SEWD INTO IA AND IL WITH WEAK WARM
ADVECTION ATOP THIS ZONE DUE TO VEERED FLOW THROUGH MID LEVELS.  WLY
COMPONENT WILL PROVIDE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT FOR
ENHANCED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES.  BY LATE AFTERNOON...MODERATE
INSTABILITY SHOULD EVOLVE WITHIN WARM ADVECTION ZONE WHERE THERE
APPEARS TO BE AN ENHANCED PROBABILITY FOR INITIATION JUST EAST OF
SFC LOW FROM SRN SD/SRN MN INTO NRN IA.  THIS OF COURSE IS
PREDICATED ON DAY1 MCS ACTIVITY NOT DISPERSING AVAILABLE INSTABILITY
THROUGH EARLY MORNING PRECIPITATION AND RESIDUAL LATE MORNING CLOUD
COVER. OTHERWISE...PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION MAY RESULT IN EPISODIC
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS MAINLY FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.  DAMAGING WINDS OR PERHAPS LARGE HAIL WILL BE
THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS.

..DARROW.. 07/19/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.