[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 181743
SWODY2
SPC AC 181741

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1241 PM CDT SUN JUL 18 2004

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NE
MOT 35 S BIS 60 SSE Y22 40 ENE 81V 4BQ 65 NW MLS 75 ENE HVR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LAF 10 E OTM 45 NNE
CNU 45 NE PNC 10 N P28 20 SSW HLC AMA SJT BPT CEW MCN TRI LUK LAF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM YUM 40 NE TRM EDW MER
60 N SVE 25 E MFR 10 NW SLE 25 SSW AST.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN MT/NWRN
SD AND WRN-CENTRAL ND...

...SYNOPSIS...
WRN UPPER RIDGE NOSING INTO THE NRN ROCKIES AND WRN CANADA WILL
BREAK DOWN ON MONDAY...AS THE NERN PACIFIC CLOSED LOW MOVES FURTHER
INLAND ACROSS WRN CANADA.  HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED FROM KS SOUTH
AND EWD AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN
PLAINS.  THIS TREND WILL WEAKEN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN
IN PLACE OVER THE ERN STATES.

...ERN MT/WRN-CENTRAL ND/NWRN SD...
WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH...LOCATED WITHIN PLUME OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE
AND CURRENTLY OVER THE NRN GREAT BASIN...IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER
CENTRAL MT BY 12Z MONDAY.  THE 12Z ETA/GFS CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN THE
TIMING OF THIS TROUGH AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
STATES ON DAY 2.  THE GFS REMAINS FASTER WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHILE 
THE ETA APPEARS TO BE CLOSER TO CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS.  ETA
FOLLOWED FOR CONVECTIVE THREAT.

STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS ERN MT INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS SHOULD SUPPORT
MODERATE INSTABILITY...ALONG AND EAST OF THE LEE TROUGH.  INCREASING
LARGE SCALE ASCENT AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TOPS THE UPPER RIDGE AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEE TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER ERN MT/NERN WY. 
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS.
 LOWER SLIGHT RISK PROBABILITIES WILL BE MAINTAINED SINCE WARM
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES/THERMAL RIDGE INDICATED BY THE GFS OVER ERN
MT AT 00Z AND LAGGING WWD SOMEWHAT BY THE ETA MAY LIMIT THE OVERALL
COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.  NONETHELESS...BOTH
MODELS DO AGREE THAT CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ACROSS
MAINLY ND...AND POTENTIALLY INTO WRN MN AS A STRENGTHENING LLJ
INCREASES WAA FOR ELEVATED STORMS.

...WI/LOWER MI...
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS NERN MN/LAKE SUPERIOR DURING
THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD...SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START
OF DAY 2 FROM NRN WI INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO.  STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS CANADA...WITH THE TRAILING
SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT TRACKING ESEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY.  SPEED OF THE SYSTEM MAY LIMIT THE RETURN OF STRONGER
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR

SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH ISOLATED
STRONG WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ALONG THE FRONT.

...MID ATLANTIC REGION...
DESPITE WEAK LAPSE RATES...A MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE
COASTAL REGIONS RESULTING IN MODERATE INSTABILITY.  WEAK UPPER
SUPPORT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH ENOUGH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.

...NRN ROCKIES...
CONTINUED MOISTENING OF THE LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS FROM DAY 1 CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN HIGHER VALUES OF INSTABILITY FOR THE DAY 2
PERIOD OVER THE NRN ROCKIES.  MODERATE SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT
STORM ORGANIZATION WITH A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS...THOUGH FORECAST COVERAGE WARRANTS LOW PROBABILITIES AT THIS
TIME.

..PETERS.. 07/18/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.