[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 180728
SWODY2
SPC AC 180727

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 AM CDT SUN JUL 18 2004

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NE
MOT 10 NNE BIS 65 S Y22 GCC 70 E BIL 10 SE LWT 40 NE CTB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM YUM 40 NE TRM EDW MER
SVE 4LW 10 NW SLE 25 SSW AST.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LAF OTM HLC AMA SJT
BPT CEW MCN TRI LUK LAF.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...

...MT/ND/MN...
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES IS FORECAST TO
FLATTEN OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY MONDAY EVENING...AS STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES ACROSS REGION.  ETA/GFS SOLUTIONS DIFFER IN
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS SYSTEM.  HOWEVER...IT APPEARS LIKELY
THAT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF MT/ND ON DAY2. 
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF WY/SD/MT/ND WILL
TRANSPORT MOISTURE NORTHWARD...LEADING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. 
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL MT AND
SOUTHERN ALBERTA...SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO ND DURING THE
EVENING.  SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR
TO BE THE MAIN THREAT. GFS SOLUTIONS SUGGESTS THAT THREAT WILL
DEVELOP EASTWARD OVERNIGHT ACROSS ND INTO MN AHEAD OF STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  THIS AREA MAY REQUIRE INCLUSION IN SLIGHT RISK IN
LATER OUTLOOKS IF SCENARIO BECOMES MORE LIKELY.

...NORTHERN ROCKIES...
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES ON MONDAY.  SEVERAL DAYS OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
MAY AID IN A SLOW MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER...ALLOWING
POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY.  SCATTERED HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS.  HOWEVER...THIS AREA
WILL BE MONITORED FOR GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AN INCREASED
RISK OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL.

...GREAT LAKES REGION...
ETA SOLUTIONS SHOWS A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS
MN/WI MONDAY MORNING.  THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO LOWER MI AND EVENTUALLY PARTS OF IND/OH DURING
THE AFTERNOON. SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR/INSTABILITY WILL BE IN
PLACE FOR ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS.

...VA/NC...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE AHEAD OF MID LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY.
 SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD
SUPPORT A RISK OF ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...IF POCKETS OF
STRONG INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP.

..HART.. 07/18/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.