[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 171736
SWODY2
SPC AC 171735

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 PM CDT SAT JUL 17 2004

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE
IWD 40 ENE MSP 20 SW AXN 35 W FAR 70 NNE DVL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW YUM DAG BFL
SAC MFR SLE SEA 10 N BLI ...CONT... CMX 10 NE EAU 20 N SUX 15 WSW
BIE 20 ESE GLD CDS 10 NW BWD CLL MCB 15 NW TCL 45 ENE MKL DEC MKG
OSC ...CONT... 55 NW 3B1 10 S HUL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ON SUNDAY ACROSS PARTS OF NERN
ND/MN INTO NWRN WI...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WRN STATES WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH
IN THE EAST.  BAND OF 30-35 KT WINDS WILL EXTEND FROM CENTRAL CANADA
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/MN TO THE GULF COAST STATES...AND THEN CONTINUING
ENEWD TO THE CAROLINAS/MID ATLANTIC STATES.  A BAND OF MODERATELY
STRONG SWLY WINDS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PAC NW AS AN UPPER LOW...
CURRENTLY OFF THE NW COAST...BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND.

...ND/MN...
ETA/GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK TOWARD ND/
NRN MN BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN TO LAKE SUPERIOR/NRN WI
SUNDAY NIGHT.  AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM WRN ONTARIO ACROSS NWRN
MN INTO NERN ND...WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND AROUND 40 KT OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTING SUPERCELLS.  ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD ESEWD
ACROSS NERN MN TO NRN WI AND POTENTIALLY INTO THE WRN U.P. OF MI
SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

...CAROLINAS TO THE NERN GULF COAST...
WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE OH TO LOWER MS VALLEYS
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND SOUTH
ALONG THE SRN GULF COAST STATES ON SUNDAY.  MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE PROGGED TO STEEPEN SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS INLAND SECTIONS OF
ERN GA TO THE CAROLINAS AND SERN VA AS A DRY SLOT SPREADS ACROSS
THIS REGION.  THIS COMBINED WITH A MOIST AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF THE
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY...AND SURFACE HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN AN AXIS
OF MODERATE INSTABILITY.  30-35 KT OF SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL
RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR MULTICELLS AND A FEW
SUPERCELLS PRODUCING ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.  GIVEN
LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...THIS AREA WILL REMAIN IN A 5 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS.

SWD ACROSS THE NERN GULF COAST STATES...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
MODERATE WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT SOME STORM ORGANIZATION. 
HOWEVER...WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
30-35 KT OF NNWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ABOVE SELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS AT 10-15
KT WILL RESULT IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. 
STRONG SURFACE HEATING COMBINED WITH AN AXIS OF SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER 60S AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN MODERATE
INSTABILITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  THE STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEE TROUGH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
DIURNAL SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP WITH ISOLATED HAIL AND/OR A FEW
DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS.

...PAC NW TO NRN ROCKIES...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NWD ACROSS THIS REGION
WITH MODELS INDICATING A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK FROM THE
NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION ENEWD TO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. DESPITE
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION... MARGINAL
INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT INVERTED-V
SOUNDINGS SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

..PETERS.. 07/17/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.