[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 170720
SWODY2
SPC AC 170718

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0218 AM CDT SAT JUL 17 2004

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE
IWD 40 ENE MSP 20 SW AXN 35 W FAR 70 NNE DVL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW YUM DAG BFL
SAC MFR SLE SEA 10 N BLI ...CONT... CMX EAU FSD IML CDS 10 NW BWD
CLL MCB TCL 10 SSE BNA DEC MKG OSC.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ON SUNDAY OVER PARTS OF
ND/MN/WI...

...ND/MN...
HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON
SUNDAY...WITH BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS EXTENDING
FROM ND/MN INTO THE GULF COAST STATES. ETA/GFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
SASK/MANITOBA...AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN ONTARIO INTO ND/MN. AIRMASS IN THIS
REGION WILL BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
60S AND MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG.  VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES
SUGGEST A RISK OF SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.  CAPPING INVERSION AND UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO 
LIMIT SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION INTO SD/NEB/IA.

...NORTHERN ROCKIES...
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...WHERE RELATIVELY STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS AND CONTINUED
INVERTED-V PROFILES ARE EXPECTED.

...GULF COAST...
VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON DAY2 ALONG THE AL/FL
GULF COAST...WHERE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONGER WESTERLIES MAY
ENHANCE CONVECTION ORGANIZATION AND THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS.

...CAROLINAS...
RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST OVER THE
CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY...IN DRY SLOT OF UPPER LOW OVER OH.  MODERATELY
INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG/ SUGGEST A RISK OF LARGE
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS.

..HART.. 07/17/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.