[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 161731
SWODY2
SPC AC 161730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2004

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E
SSI ABY 25 SE MEI 50 WNW JAN 25 NNW GLH 10 SSE MKL 10 S TYS 30 E HKY
15 ENE RDU 10 E WAL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW PSX SAT INK
ALM SVC 30 ESE DUG ...CONT... YUM DAG FAT RBL EKA ...CONT... 70 NE
MOT 10 SSE REJ AKO EHA 45 NE AMA LTS MKO TBN 10 SSW MTO AZO OSC.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ON SATURDAY FROM THE CAROLINAS
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FROM THE ROCKIES NWD INTO WRN
CANADA WITH A TROUGH IN THE EAST.  THIS TROUGH WILL DEEPEN SLIGHTLY
ON SATURDAY AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW TOPPING THE RIDGE...AND A
TROUGH MOVING SSEWD ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES...MOVE TOWARD THE
LOWER MS AND LOWER OH VALLEYS... RESPECTIVELY. AT THE SURFACE A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER
OH/TN AND LOWER MS VALLEYS...AND NRN/EAST TX.  A STALLED E-W
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF COAST STATES.

...CAROLINAS TO CENTRAL/ERN GULF COAST REGION...
BAND OF 30-40 KT OF WNWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL EXTEND FROM ERN OK/AR
EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES TO THE CAROLINAS.  CLOUDINESS
ASSOCIATED WITH EXPECTED ONGOING CLUSTER OF STORMS ACROSS LOWER MS
VALLEY TO AL MAY LIMIT AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION... DOWNSTREAM ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/ERN GULF COAST STATES. DESPITE WEAK LAPSE
RATES...A MOIST AIR MASS IN THIS AREA WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 70S AND A WEAK CAP WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. 
25-30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL TEND TO FAVOR MULTICELLS.

...LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS TO LOWER MS VALLEY...
COOLING MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THERMAL TROUGH MOVING
SWD ACROSS THIS AREA WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
WEAK COLD FRONT FROM PORTIONS OF OH SWWD TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...AS
THE AIR MASS BECOMES MODERATELY UNSTABLE.  25-30 KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR FROM KY TO MS SHOULD SUPPORT MULTICELL STORMS... WITH THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF MS/SRN TN WHERE MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL BE STRONGER.

...NORTHWEST STATES...
WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS...WITHIN A BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG SW
WINDS ALOFT...WILL TRACK NEWD ACROSS WA/ORE TO MT ON SATURDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF NWD MOVING MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH OLD TROPICAL SYSTEM OFF THE CA COAST WILL SPREAD
NNEWD ACROSS THIS REGION.  THIS INCREASE IN MID TO UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENT SURFACE HEATING WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.  DESPITE
EXPECTED STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...LIMITED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND A LOW THREAT
FOR SEVERE STORMS.  HOWEVER...INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS SHOULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY.

..PETERS.. 07/16/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.