[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 150737
SWODY2
SPC AC 150736

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0236 AM CDT THU JUL 15 2004

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNE
ISN 30 E PHP 30 ESE MHN 15 NW IML LAA 20 S PUB LAR 35 SE BIL 40 ESE
LWT 70 ENE HVR.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE
BVE 30 S PBF 25 W FSM 30 NE BVO 30 SSE OJC 40 ESE UIN 10 W CGX 20
ENE JXN 20 ESE FDY 20 W SDF 50 S BNA BHM TOI 25 SSE TLH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE EWR 30 NNW BWI
30 SW SHD 40 NE HKY 35 S CLT 30 NNW CRE 30 ESE ECG ...CONT... 25 ESE
7R4 25 WNW ESF 40 E PRX 20 NW FSI 40 ESE AMA 20 W HOB 45 WSW MRF
...CONT... 20 E CZZ 35 E NID 20 NE TPH 60 NNW LOL 15 NNE MHS 10 W
MFR 35 ESE PDX 70 NW FCA ...CONT... 45 N MOT 25 SE BIS 20 WSW HON 40
NNW SUX 30 SSW FOD 45 N ALO 65 N EAU 70 NW CMX.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER/MID
MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NRN HIGH
PLAINS...

...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID/LOWER MS AND LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY...

FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD ACROSS THE NRN MS RIVER
 VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY.  ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL LIKEWISE MOVE SEWD AND EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO
THE OZARKS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.  A VERY MOIST AND MODERATE TO
STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S FROM THE SRN PLAINS
INTO CENTRAL IL/IND.

MCS MAY BE ONGOING ALONG TAIL END OF THIS SYSTEM INTO PARTS OF KS/MO
ALONG NOSE OF SWLY LLJ AT BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WHICH WILL LIKELY
SHIFT ESEWD THROUGH THE DAY.  ETA AND GFS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT WITH
LOCATION OF THIS ACTIVITY...THOUGH OVERALL PATTERN SUGGESTS
CONVECTION MAY BECOME QUITE ACTIVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON.  BRN-SHEAR VALUES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
ORGANIZED LINES AND POSSIBLY SUPERCELLS...AS 35-45 KT OF NWLY H5
WINDS OVERSPREAD LOWER TO MID 70F SURFACE DEW POINTS.  LAPSE RATES
WILL BE MARGINAL.  HOWEVER...OVERALL PATTERN FAVORS POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WINDS OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY IF ACTIVITY INTENSIFIES
ALONG A COMMON OUTFLOW...WITH THREAT POSSIBLY EXTENDING TO THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST THROUGH THE EVENING.

FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE FRONT...ETA SUGGESTS SBCAPES NEAR 2500 J/KG
INTO IL/IND WILL DEVELOP WITHIN WARM SECTOR.  LARGE SCALE ASCENT
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SHOULD
SUPPORT RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY THE MID AFTERNOON.  THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL THROUGH THE MID EVENING AS IT SHIFTS EWD. SUPERCELL AND
ATTENDANT TORNADO THREAT MAY BE GREATER NEAR WEAK SURFACE LOW INTO
PORTIONS OF NERN IL/NRN IND.

...NRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
PERSISTENT WNWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AS A SERIES OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES ALOFT DRIFT EWD ACROSS THE REGION.  EXPECT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS AXIS OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ALONG LEE TROUGH.  COMBINATION OF
UPSLOPE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND MODEST NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE
SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR STORM-SCALE ORGANIZATION AS STORMS MOVE ESEWD
AWAY FROM HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEAR LEE TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED THREAT
OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

..EVANS.. 07/15/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.