[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 151746
SWODY2
SPC AC 151745

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2004

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNE
ISN 30 E PHP 30 ESE MHN 15 NW IML LAA 20 S PUB LAR 35 SE BIL 40 ESE
LWT 70 ENE HVR.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE
BVE 30 S PBF 25 SSE MKO 15 N BVO 30 SSE OJC 30 S BRL 25 SW OSH 10
SSW LAN 20 ESE FDY 20 W SDF 50 S BNA BHM TOI 25 SSE TLH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE 7R4 25 WNW ESF
40 E PRX 20 NW FSI 40 ESE AMA 20 W HOB 45 WSW MRF ...CONT... 20 E
CZZ 35 E NID 20 NE TPH 60 NNW LOL 15 NNE MHS 10 W MFR 35 ESE PDX 70
NW FCA ...CONT... 45 N MOT 25 SE BIS 20 WSW HON 40 NNW SUX 30 SSW
FOD 45 N ALO 65 N EAU 70 NW CMX ...CONT... 15 SSE EWR 30 NNW BWI 30
SW SHD 40 NE HKY 35 S CLT 30 NNW CRE 30 ESE ECG.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SRN GREAT LAKES SWWD TO
MID/LOWER MS VALLEYS AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ALONG THE NRN/CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND EXTENDING NWD
TO THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES WILL MAINTAIN NWLY FLOW ALOFT FROM
 THE NRN PLAINS TO THE TN/LOWER MS VALLEYS AND GULF COAST STATES. 
ALTHOUGH MODELS AGREE THAT SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE SEWD WITHIN
NWLY FLOW...THEY DISAGREE WITH THE STRENGTH AND/OR TIMING OF THESE
FEATURES EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE SRN GREAT LAKES AND TN/LOWER MS
VALLEYS.  COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOWER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES
SYSTEMS IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM LM SWWD ACROSS SRN IL/OZARKS
REGION TO CENTRAL OK BY 17/00Z.  MEANWHILE...A STALLED BOUNDARY WILL
EXTEND E-W ACROSS THE SRN GULF COAST STATES.  THE WRN PORTION OF
THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD RETREAT NEWD AS A WARM FRONT TOWARD MIDDLE
TN/CENTRAL AL IN ADVANCE OF TN/LOWER MS VALLEYS SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

...SRN GREAT LAKES SWWD TO MID/LOWER MS VALLEYS AND CENTRAL GULF
COAST STATES...

12Z ETA/GFS ARE IN MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF AN EXPECTED
ONGOING MCS ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS OF KS INTO LOWER MO VALLEY FRIDAY
MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SWLY LOW-LEVEL
JET NOSING INTO ERN KS.  MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF
THIS MCS AND SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 70S EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE SRN GULF COAST STATES/LOWER MS
VALLEY NNEWD TO SRN IL/SWRN IND.  INCREASING ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF
GREAT LAKES TROUGH AND SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SRN MO/NRN AR ALONG WITH
CONVERGENCE ALONG COLD FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM MO MCS WILL
ALLOW FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON.  THE COMBINATION OF
VERY STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 2500-3000 J/KG/ ALONG THE OZARKS AND
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SUPERCELLS WITH
AN ATTENDANT HAIL/ DAMAGING WIND THREAT.  INCREASED LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IN VICINITY OF SURFACE LOW OVER SERN
MO/SRN IL AND SEWD ALONG WARM FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT A TORNADO
POTENTIAL.  MODELS TEND TO AGREE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FORWARD
PROPAGATING MCS FRIDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO
NRN AL...WITH MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS.  

FURTHER NNEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...AN AXIS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL FAVOR MULTICELLS WITH
AN ACCOMPANYING HAIL/WIND THREAT.  AN ATTENDANT ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SERN WI/NERN IL INTO NRN IND WHERE A
SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK ESEWD.

A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AS IT MOVES SWD ALONG THE OK/KS BORDER FRIDAY AFTERNOON... BUT
A CAP ACROSS THIS REGION IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT.  HOWEVER...IF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IS
STRONG ENOUGH TO BREAK THIS CAP...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. 
THUS...A 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBABILITY IS MAINTAINED ACROSS THIS
AREA.

...NRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD SWD ACROSS THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER
MS VALLEY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.  ESELY UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE
WRN PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST AIR MASS ALONG A
LEE TROUGH.  WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TOPPING THE RIDGE COMBINED WITH
NWLY FLOW ABOVE ESELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL FAVOR ORGANIZED STORMS AS
CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NRN/CENTRAL
ROCKIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT STORMS
MOVING ESEWD OFF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH THE SEVERE POTENTIAL
INCREASING AS STORMS MOVE INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS.  STEEP LAPSE
RATES SHOULD SUPPORT A HAIL THREAT...WHILE INVERTED-V PROFILES TEND
TO FAVOR A DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

..PETERS.. 07/15/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.