[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 141727
SWODY2
SPC AC 141726

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2004

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S
MCK 15 E IML 45 WSW MHN 45 ENE CDR 40 N RAP 35 W Y22 40 NW MBG 40
NNE ABR 25 W AXN 35 N MSP 40 E MSP RST 25 SW MCW 55 NE OMA 30 ENE
LNK 30 WSW BIE 55 WNW CNK 20 S MCK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW BPT 30 N GGG
TUL 30 E GAG 35 S ABQ 40 SE DMN ...CONT... CZZ 55 S BIH 25 NE BIH 35
E P38 30 N MLF ENV 20 ESE TWF 50 WSW 27U 30 E PUW 40 NNW 4OM
...CONT... 65 N OLF 20 SSE SDY 45 ESE DIK JMS 65 NNW GFK ...CONT...
30 ESE ANJ 50 WNW MKG STL 20 NNW DYR 40 S MSL 20 ESE LGC 40 S CAE 15
SE ECG ...CONT... 20 SSE PVD 25 SSW PSF 40 NNE CXY 20 NE PIT 45 WSW
ERI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS....

...SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE U.S. DOMINATED BY TROUGH OVER THE ERN
U.S. AND STRONG RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS STATES THAT
WILL EXTEND NWD OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. THIS LEAVES MODERATE
NWLY FLOW FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE TN VALLEY.  ETA MODEL
INDICATES THAT STRONG SEASONAL COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD FROM ACROSS
THE ERN U.S. EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MA SWD THROUGH SERN VA...THEN
SWWD INTO SRN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MS.  A LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER S
CENTRAL SD WITH A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT THAT WILL RUN FROM N CENTRAL
MT INTO NERN WY...THRU THE SD LOW...THEN CONTINUING ACROSS SERN KS
AND NERN LA.

...PARTS OF THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

ETA MODEL INDICATES VERY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS
MAINLY DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AS IT ALSO
EXTENDS ESEWD ACROSS NRN TX INTO CENTRAL LA.  THUS...BEST
PROBABILITY OF CONVECTION WILL BE ON ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE RIDGE
IN THE VICINITY OF THE QUASISTATIONARY FRONT AND PERIPHERY OF STRONG
CAPPING INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGING. AIR MASS WILL BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS THE AREA AS MUCAPE
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 2500 AND 3500 J/KG...WITH STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7C/KM.  THIS REGION WILL ALSO BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION OF 90-95 KT UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK ENHANCING UVVS.  LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO BE 40 KT ACROSS THE REGION... FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS...THUS ISOLATED TORNADOES COULD OCCUR ON ERN SIDE OF
SURFACE LOW IN VICINITY OF QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY.

...PARTS OF MS INTO AL...

REMNANTS OF UNSEASONABLE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LAY ACROSS PARTS
OF CENTRAL AL AND MS DURING THE AFTERNOON.  AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO
BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE BETWEEN 3000 AND 4500 J/KG. 
ANALYSIS OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 7C/KM
INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

..MCCARTHY.. 07/14/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.