[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 140743
SWODY2
SPC AC 140742

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0242 AM CDT WED JUL 14 2004

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW
HVR 15 W 81V 40 SW PHP 35 SSE PHP 25 SE PIR 10 E MHE 25 NNE OMA 35
SSE SZL 15 WNW JBR 35 N GLH 35 S PBF 30 SSW HOT 30 SW CNK 40 NW GLD
35 NNE LAR 35 W WRL 20 SW BZN 50 NNE FCA.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 ENE
ELO 10 NNW IWD 10 W MTW 20 SE JVL 25 ENE CID 20 SSW FRM 35 S FAR 60
W RRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW BPT 30 N GGG
TUL 30 E GAG 35 S ABQ 40 SE DMN ...CONT... CZZ 55 S BIH 25 NE BIH 35
E P38 30 N MLF ENV 20 ESE TWF 50 WSW 27U 30 E PUW 40 NNW 4OM
...CONT... 65 N OLF 20 SSE SDY 30 W BIS 20 N ABR 70 NE DVL
...CONT... 90 ESE ANJ 20 ENE FDY 20 W SDF 40 S PAH 40 S MSL 20 ESE
LGC 40 S CAE 15 SE ECG ...CONT... 20 SSE PVD 25 SSW PSF 40 NNE CXY
20 NE PIT 45 WSW ERI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY...

...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE DIGGING SEWD TODAY WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE
OFF A LOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A DEEP
TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY.  ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
SHOULD DROP SWD ALONG WRN PERIPHERY OF THIS TROUGH INTO THE UPPER MS
VLY ON THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.  BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND UPSTREAM
RIDGE...FAST NWLY FLOW WILL EXIST FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE
SERN STATES THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

IN THE LOWER LEVELS...FRONT THAT WILL FOLLOW TODAYS IMPULSE WILL
MOVE OFF THE ERN SEABOARD BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  TAIL END OF THE
FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY FROM THE DEEP SOUTH NWWD THROUGH
THE CNTRL PLAINS.  ANOTHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND
DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SWD OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND ACROSS
THE NRN HIGH PLAINS BY LATE THURSDAY.

...UPPER MS VLY...
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY ADVECT NEWD INTO THE UPPER MS
VLY ON THURSDAY...AHEAD OF THE SECONDARY IMPULSE DROPPING SWD
THROUGH NWRN ONTARIO.  INCREASED FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT
SPREADING SEWD WILL LIKELY SUPPORT TSTM INITIATION ALONG THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BY AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN MN.  DOWNSTREAM AIR
MASS CHARACTERIZED BY NEAR 60F DEW POINTS BENEATH H5 TEMPERATURES OF
MINUS 12C WILL RESULT IN MLCAPES OF AROUND 1500 J/KG.  GIVEN MODEST
DEEP NWLY FLOW...UPSCALE GROWTH INTO RAPIDLY MOVING TSTM CLUSTERS IS
POSSIBLE AND DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL COULD OCCUR.  ACTIVITY MAY REACH AS
FAR SE AS NRN IL BY LATE EVENING BEFORE POSSIBLY WEAKENING.

...OZARKS NWWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...
DIFFICULT FORECAST GIVEN NWLY FLOW REGIME.  THERE WILL LIKELY BE
AREAS WITH HIGHER SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...
BUT...ATTM IT IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT ANY AREAS FOR HIGHER
PROBABILITIES.

THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA VCNTY THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE
CAPPED TO SURFACE BASED TSTMS ON THURSDAY.  STRONGEST LOW LEVEL
HEATING IS APT TO OCCUR VCNTY SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE NEB/SD BORDER. 
LOCAL CONVERGENCE AND HOT TEMPERATURES MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO BREACH
THE CAP AND TSTMS COULD DEVELOP BY EARLY EVENING.  MLCAPES SHOULD
RANGE FROM 2500-3000 J/KG AND NWLY VERTICAL SHEAR OF 45 KTS WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL.  TSTM MAY ORGANIZE INTO A
MCS AND DROP SSEWD THROUGH NEB WITH HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS.  LLJ IS
LIKELY TO BE RATHER WEAK...BUT INCREASING WARM ADVECTION MAY AID IN
INCREASING TSTMS DOWNSTREAM ALONG/NORTHEAST OF THE FRONT SEWD INTO
THE OZARKS OVERNIGHT WITH ATTENDANT HAIL THREATS.

OTHERWISE...UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN WY/MT WILL
LIKELY MAINTAIN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE BENEATH STEEP MID
TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES.  TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN
COULD BECOME SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CNTRL MT WHERE
INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBINATIONS WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE TSTMS THAN FARTHER SE ACROSS WY.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE LIKELY.

...SERN STATES...
ISOLD SEVERE TSTMS GIVING DAMAGING WINDS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT FROM NRN FL INTO THE LOWER MS VLY.  WARM MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES
MAY MITIGATE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL AND DOES NOT SEEM TO JUSTIFY A
SLIGHT RISK ATTM.

..RACY.. 07/14/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.