[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 131731
SWODY2
SPC AC 131730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT TUE JUL 13 2004

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S
SSI 35 W TCL 60 SE HRO 30 ENE UNO 40 N CSV 30 ENE HTS 20 ENE JHW 15
ESE ELM 15 SE NEL.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM IML 30
WNW BFF 15 SSE GCC 45 S GDV 20 SW DIK 40 ESE ANW 30 W EAR IML.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ 20 ESE DAG 15 NNE
MLF 15 NW MLD 10 S LVM 60 ESE FCA 40 W PUW 35 SSW RDM 20 ESE MFR 25
NW MFR 15 SW OLM 20 WNW BLI ...CONT... 30 WNW MFE 20 NNW ALI 15 NW
CLL 25 ENE LFK 25 E ESF 20 NW JAN 30 NNW GLH 35 W FYV 15 ESE HUT 25
SSW GCK 40 ENE ROW 60 S MRF.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID ATL
STATES/CAROLINAS AND TN VLY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL/NRN HI
PLNS...

...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW DROPPING SE ACROSS THE UPR GRT LKS
EXPECTED TO REACH LK HURON BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.  THE SYSTEM SHOULD
DECELERATE AS IT CONTINUES SE ACROSS UPSTATE NY LATER WEDNESDAY/
EARLY THURSDAY.  GIVEN STRENGTH OF DISTURBANCE AND ITS MOVEMENT INTO
MEAN TROUGH OVER THE NERN STATES...IMPULSE SHOULD CLOSE OFF AS
UPSTREAM RIDGE REBOUNDS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE WEST.  OVER THE SWRN
U.S...ELY WAVE NOW NEAR THE TX BIG BEND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SLOWLY
W/WNW...REACHING SE NM EARLY WEDNESDAY AND S CNTRL AZ EARLY
THURSDAY.

AT LWR LEVELS...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH GRT LKS SYSTEM SHOULD ARC
FROM THE UPR OH VLY ACROSS THE LWR TN VLY INTO THE CNTRL PLNS AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD.  THE FRONT SHOULD REACH THE ERN SLOPES OF THE
APLCNS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS WRN PART BECOMES STNRY OVER THE PLNS.

...MID ATLANTIC STATES...
FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS LEFT OVER FROM TODAY'S ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO
BE OVER WRN PA/WV AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.  CLOUD DEBRIS AND LOW
LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM THIS FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE E ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF PA/NJ/NRN MD AND DEL LATER IN THE DAY.  GIVEN
RELATIVELY WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /AROUND 6.5 DEG C PER
KM/...THIS MAY LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THOSE AREAS DESPITE
PRESENCE OF MODERATE /30+ KT/ DEEP WSWLY SHEAR AND LARGE SCALE
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING TROUGH. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS MAY...HOWEVER...FORM ALONG OUTFLOW BNDRY AND/OR WARM FRONT 
ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM NOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST. 

...CNTRL/SRN VA INTO NC/SC...
FARTHER S...A BETTER CHANCE FOR SUSTAINED SEVERE MAY DEVELOP FROM
CNTRL/SRN VA INTO THE CAROLINAS.  STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
LIKELY EXIST IN THIS REGION /ON THE ORDER OF 7 DEG C PER KM/.  IN
ADDITION...LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD STEEPEN AS MEAN WLY FLOW AND
MORE EQUATORWARD LOCATION ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT SURFACE HEATING 
/AFTN TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 90S/ AND DESTABILIZATION /MLCAPE TO
2000 J PER KG/.  COUPLED WITH MODERATE /40 KT/ UNIDIRECTIONAL WNWLY
FLOW AND INCREASING UPPER ASCENT/DIFFLUENCE ...SETUP SHOULD PROVE
FAVORABLE FOR AFTN STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE E SLOPES OF THE
VA/NC/SC MTNS. WITH OUTFLOW FROM THE STORMS LIKELY TO QUICKLY
MERGE...SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT EVOLUTION INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING 
MCS/SQUALL LINE.  ATTENDANT EMBEDDED BOWS MAY CARRY HIGH WIND AND
POSSIBLE HAIL THREAT TO THE NC COAST BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

...TN VLY...
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO FORM WITH AFTN HEATING ALONG COLD FRONT
SETTLING S INTO THE TN VLY.  ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP WWD
ALONG BNDRY WITH TIME AS HEATING AND WLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW
ALLOW CAP TO BE BROKEN FROM EAST TO WEST.  DEGREE OF MLCAPE /AOA
2000 J PER KG/...STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE
UNIDIRECTIONAL NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO POTENTIALLY SUPPORT
DEVELOPMENT OF FORWARD-PROPAGATING LINE SEGMENTS IN THIS
REGION...AND MAY CARRY A THREAT FOR HIGH WIND/HAIL SEWD INTO NRN
AL/GA WEDNESDAY EVENING.  BACK-BUILDING ACTIVITY MAY LINGER INTO
EARLY THURSDAY ACROSS PARTS OF W TN/NRN MS.

...CNTRL/NRN HI PLNS...
A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SEVERE WILL EXIST INVOF STALLING FRONT OVER
WRN PORTIONS OF THE DAKS/NEB...WHERE WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
FOCUS BENEATH MODEST /25-30 KT/ MID LEVEL NW FLOW.  IT DOES NOT
APPEAR THAT LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
IMPULSE TOPPING WRN RIDGE WILL BE FAVORABLY TIMED WITH THE DIURNAL
CYCLE AS FAR AS STORM INITIATION IS CONCERNED. BUT THERMODYNAMIC
CONDITIONS AND LOW LEVEL FORCING MAY SUPPORT AFTN STORMS OVER THE
BLACK HILLS AND POSSIBLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN WY. ANY STORMS
THAT DO FORM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO YIELD HAIL/HIGH WIND.

...ARN AZ...
BNDRY LAYER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS AZ
TOMORROW...WHERE MODEST MID LEVEL ELY FLOW WILL PREVAIL DOWNSTREAM
FROM UPPER SYSTEM NOW NEAR THE BIG BEND.  CONDITIONS APPEAR TOO
UNCERTAIN ATTM...HOWEVER...TO WARRANT ADDITION OF A SLIGHT RISK
AREA...MAINLY BECAUSE OF UNKNOWN INFLUENCE OF UPPER SYSTEM ON
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

..CORFIDI.. 07/13/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.