[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 130740
SWODY2
SPC AC 130739

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0239 AM CDT TUE JUL 13 2004

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE
CHS 20 NW AUO 60 SE HRO 40 NE UNO 30 S OWB 55 ESE LUK 20 ENE JHW 15
ESE ELM 40 ENE SBY.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW
HSI IML 30 WNW BFF 35 NNE DGW 20 E 81V 30 E RAP 45 E ANW 25 WSW OLU
20 SE HSI 55 SSW HSI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW MFE 15 NW ALI
40 W TYR 25 WNW MLC 25 WSW PNC 35 ESE LBL 30 NNE CVS 50 S MRF
...CONT... 10 SSE CZZ 20 ESE LAS 55 E MLF 35 WNW JAC 20 WNW BZN 35
ESE 3TH 40 W PUW 35 SSW RDM 20 ESE MFR 25 NW MFR 15 SW OLM 20 WNW
BLI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID
ATLANTIC...OH/TN VLYS AND THE CAROLINAS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL
DIG SEWD AND EVENTUALLY DIG OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE ERN PARTS OF
THE COUNTRY BY LATE WEDNESDAY. UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND
OVER THE WRN STATES.  WEAKER IMPULSES WILL TOP THE RIDGE...WITH ONE
SUCH DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS MT/WY THEN INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS BY
EARLY THU.  

AT THE SURFACE...LOW WILL INTENSIFY AHEAD OF THE STRONG TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  A COLD FRONT EXTENDING S FROM THE LOW WILL
SWEEP RAPIDLY ESEWD... REACHING NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.  TAIL END OF THE FRONT WILL ARC NWWD
INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.  THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTMS. 

...ERN STATES...
LEADING EDGE OF FORWARD PROPAGATING/WIND DAMAGE PRODUCING MCS WILL
LIKELY BE VCNTY THE UPPER OH VLY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. 
STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIGGING TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND LOWER GREAT LAKES EARLY WEDNESDAY...THEN
INTO NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY THURSDAY.  UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON HOW
DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL AFFECT BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING FROM THE MASON
DIXON LINE NWD INTO THE NERN STATES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT LEADING EDGE OF THE MCS COULD REGENERATE AND MOVE
TOWARD THE COAST FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND TO DELMARVA BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING.  GIVEN SUFFICIENT HEATING...FAST WNWLY UPPER FLOW REGIME
MAY ENCOURAGE TSTMS TO BOW GIVING DAMAGING WINDS.

STRONGEST BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND STEEPEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
SHOULD EXIST FROM THE MID OH VLY/MID-ATLANTIC SWWD INTO THE TN VLY. 
TAIL END OF THE MCS SHOULD INTENSIFY DURING PEAK HEATING OVER THE OH
VLY/KY AREA AND COULD BEGIN TO FORWARD PROPAGATE SEWD TOWARD THE
CAROLINAS BY EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS.  OTHER STORMS MAY FAVOR
THE LEE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS. 

WRN EXTENT OF THE SEVERE THREAT IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN. FORCING/
CONVERGENCE WILL BE MUCH WEAKER FROM MID TN WWD INTO THE CNTRL
PLAINS AND MIDLEVEL CAP WILL BE STRONGER.  THUS...ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BE ISOLD AT BEST.

...CNTRL/NRN HIGH PLAINS...
SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL ADVECT NEAR 60F DEW POINTS NWWD INTO
THE CNTRL/NRN HIGH PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY.  PRIND THAT TSTMS WILL
DEVELOP ON THE HIGHER WY/SD TERRAIN BY AFTERNOON AND COULD MIGRATE
ONTO THE PLAINS DURING THE EVENING IF CINH WEAKENS SUFFICIENTLY. 
VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SUGGEST THAT LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR
WITH POSSIBLE DAMAGING WINDS AS THE STORMS MOVE SEWD INTO NEB
OVERNIGHT.  OTHER ISOLD TSTMS MAY GIVE ISOLD LARGE HAIL/GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS ERN MT.

..RACY.. 07/13/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.