[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 121735
SWODY2
SPC AC 121734

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1234 PM CDT MON JUL 12 2004

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW
JHW 30 NNE LBE EKN HSS CHA 35 NNE MKL TBN MHK 55 WNW CNK IML 30 SW
SNY 20 E LAR 20 SSW DGW 40 ENE DGW 10 SW CDR 25 N MHN 40 NNE BUB SUX
MCW RHI 30 NNW MQT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N GGW 40 WNW GDV
40 WSW REJ 60 SSW PHP 40 WSW YKN 10 NW SPW 15 NW MKT 35 E STC 15 N
DLH 25 E ELO ...CONT... 60 W 3B1 25 NE PSM ...CONT... 25 SW PSX 20
SE TPL DAL 30 E DUA 25 SSE PGO 50 SE FYV UMN 25 NNW CNU 20 N HUT 45
ENE DDC 30 SW LBL AMA MAF 35 NW DRT ...CONT... 10 SW IPL IGM ALS 50
W COS 50 W LAR 50 W CPR COD WEY 35 SSW 27U 35 WNW BOI 55 SSW BNO 35
NE LMT 55 SSE EUG OLM 35 WNW BLI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS GREAT LAKES/OH...TN AND MID MS
VALLEYS WWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER SRN ONTARIO TUESDAY MORNING WILL AMPLIFY INTO
THE ERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE PERIOD AS A 100 KT HIGH LEVEL JET MAX
DIGS SEWD FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. UPPER RIDGE WILL
ALSO BUILD NWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES...RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING
MID/HIGH LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY EWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
EXTEND FROM MI SWWD INTO NRN MO...AND THEN WWD ALONG THE KS/NEB
BORDER BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

...GREAT LAKES/OH AND TN VALLEYS...
CONVECTIVE TIMING/LOCATION IS OFTEN DIFFICULT IN THIS TYPE OF
PATTERN AS OVERNIGHT CONVECTION TYPICALLY PROVIDES FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION THE NEXT DAY. EXPECT STORMS...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NERN
SD...TO BE LOCATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN IA/IL AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. THOUGH STORMS MAY BE NON-SEVERE IN THE MORNING...
REMNANTS/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SEWD INTO AN INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS. WITH DIURNAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION...STORMS ARE
LIKELY TO INTENSIFY. STRENGTHENING NWLY FLOW AND WITH LIKELIHOOD
THAT STORMS WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A LINEAR MCS...THESE SYSTEMS
TYPICALLY MOVE FURTHER SEWD THAN FORECAST BY THE MODELS... SO SEVERE
THREAT MAY SPREAD INTO KY/TN DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WIND WOULD BE
THE MAIN THREAT...THOUGH SUFFICIENTLY STRONG INSTABILITY FOR SOME
HAIL ALSO.

STORMS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT FROM MI SWWD
INTO NRN MO TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE APPROACHING SPEED MAX
INCREASES DIFFLUENCE ALOFT...WITH CONSEQUENT STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S AND 500-700 MB LAPSE
RATES FROM 7-8C/KM WILL RESULT IN EXTREME INSTABILITY/
MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 4000 J/KG/. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KT WOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE MODE IS LIKELY TO BE
LINEAR AS WEAKENING CAP SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD STORMS TO FORM
ALONG OR AHEAD OF FRONT. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR...LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT AS STORMS INITIALLY
DEVELOP...BUT SHOULD TRANSLATE TO MAINLY A WIND THREAT AS STORMS
EVOLVE INTO A FAST MOVING LINE. SEVERE THREAT WOULD CONTINUE WELL
INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/LOWER MI...GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS.

...CENTRAL PLAINS...
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS A LITTLE LESS CERTAIN IN THIS AREA...
THOUGH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...UPSLOPE ELY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND
CONVERGENCE NEAR FRONT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE STRONGER THAN
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...BUT STORMS MAY FORM NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF SERN WY. STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
TO PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL/WIND GIVEN MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 2500 J/KG AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 30 TO 40 KT. AFTER STORMS DEVELOP...THEY MAY
SHIFT EWD ACROSS SRN NEB...NORTH OF SURFACE FRONT...WHERE FRONTAL
LIFT AID LIFTING THROUGH THE STRONG CAP.

...AZ...
TROPICAL CIRCULATION WAS LOCATED ABOUT 150 NM SE OF THE TX BIG BEND
MOVING NWD AT 20-25 KT. CURRENT MOTION WOULD PLACE SYSTEM IN EXTREME
NRN MEXICO SOUTH OF THE AZ/NM BORDER BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MID
AND HIGH LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT AS THIS
SYSTEM NEARS THE SWRN STATES. MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALREADY
PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE SHOULD AID
IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION/ORGANIZATION. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF CLOUDS
FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AND EXACT MOTION OF SYSTEM...WILL ONLY
ISSUE A 5% PROBABILITY FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WIND GUSTS ATTM.

..IMY.. 07/12/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.