[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 121242
SWODY2
SPC AC 121241

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0741 AM CDT MON JUL 12 2004

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW
ERI 25 WNW PIT 30 SSW PKB 15 NE JKL 55 E BWG 20 NNE PAH 10 W VIH 25
SE TOP 20 NE RSL 15 WNW GLD 30 WSW AKO 10 ENE LAR 10 NNE CPR 35 W
GCC 40 NNE 81V 45 SSE REJ 25 SE PHP 55 WSW YKN 30 E SUX MCW 20 WSW
EAU 30 WSW IWD 50 ENE ELO.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 W 3B1 25 NE PSM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW PSX TPL 10 ESE
FTW 30 E DUA 20 ESE PGO 50 SE FYV 10 SSE UMN 25 NE CNU 40 W EMP 45
ENE DDC 30 SW LBL 40 SSW AMA 25 NNE MAF 35 NW DRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW YUM 30 W PRC 45
E PGA 45 NE GJT 35 NNE CAG 50 W CPR 15 SW COD 15 NE WEY 35 SSW 27U
35 WNW BOI 55 SSW BNO 35 NE LMT 55 SSE EUG 25 N OLM 35 WNW BLI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N GGW 40 WNW GDV
50 N REJ 25 NNW PIR 15 SSE HON 35 E BKX 40 S STC 55 SSW DLH 25 ESE
HIB 30 E INL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OH
VALLEY...WWD TO ERN WY...

CORRECTED FOR 5% PROBABILITY LINE

...GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY...

BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY WILL ALLOW A
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO DIG SHARPLY SEWD FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY
INTO THE OH VALLEY BY 14/12Z.  ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL SPEED MAX IN
EXCESS OF 60KT WILL TRANSLATE TOWARD THE BASE OF THE DIGGING TROUGH
ACROSS SRN MN INTO NRN IND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH HEIGHT
FALLS ON THE ORDER OF 30-60M EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTH OF THE JET. 
LARGE SCALE PATTERN FAVORS A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
EPISODE WITH DERECHO-LIKE PARAMETERS FROM PORTIONS OF SRN WI INTO
THE OH VALLEY.

THIS SUBTLE LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGE WILL UNDOUBTEDLY ALLOW MUCH
STEEPER LAPSE RATES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY REGION ATOP A
VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ENABLING A POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS TO DEVELOP...SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF 4000J/KG...ACROSS INFLOW
REGION OF AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.  ALTHOUGH DAY1 CONVECTIVE PROCESSES
MAY ADVERSELY INFLUENCE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EARLY STAGES OF THE
CONVECTIVE CYCLE...IT APPEARS STRONG HEATING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
FROM MO INTO WI WILL AID INITIATION BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  DAMAGING
LINE SEGMENTS/BOW ECHOES SHOULD DEVELOP WITH AFTERNOON ACTIVITY
BEFORE A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WIND-PRODUCING MCS EVOLVES AND
RACES SEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY. AN UPGRADE IN LATER OUTLOOKS IS
POSSIBLE AS DAY1 CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES AND CONFIDENCE IN INITIATING
ZONE BECOME MORE CLEAR.

FARTHER UPSTREAM...STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
EVOLVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WY WHERE ELY BOUNDARY LAYER
COMPONENT ON BACK SIDE OF SFC HIGH WILL ENHANCE CONVERGENCE.  THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD SEWD ALONG FRONTAL ZONE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS ALONG NRN FRINGES OF UPPER ANTICYCLONE.

..DARROW.. 07/12/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.