[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 110744
SWODY2
SPC AC 110743

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0243 AM CDT SUN JUL 11 2004

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 E
MQT 20 SW ESC 20 S GRB 25 SW MKE 35 S CGX 35 NW LAF 15 S CMI 30 N
ALN 35 S IRK STJ 40 SSW HSI 25 ESE IML 30 E SNY 50 ENE CDR 25 ESE
PIR 20 NNE ATY 15 E BRD 40 SE ELO 70 E ELO.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N 63S 55 WNW PUW
25 ESE PDT 65 NNE 4LW 35 ENE MHS 45 W MHS 25 SW EUG 35 E AST 25 NW
BLI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM HUL 10 ESE 3B1 15 ESE
CON 15 ESE JFK ...CONT... GLS 40 NNE HOU 20 WNW LFK 25 SW SHV 30 E
ELD 50 N GLH 30 NNW MEM 50 NW POF 40 NNW SGF 25 E HUT 10 E GCK 40
SSW LAA 25 NE LVS 25 WSW 4CR 15 SE ELP ...CONT... 85 WSW TUS 40 ESE
GBN 25 NNE INW 40 NE CEZ 40 ENE CAG 35 NW CPR 40 NE SHR 45 NNW REJ
45 NE Y22 25 ESE JMS 15 NNE BJI 20 N ELO.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS
AND MIDDLE MO VALLEY REGIONS....

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED MOSTLY BY STRONG
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER CO DURING THE PERIOD.  MODELS
INDICATE THE THERE WILL BE A STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAX OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD THAT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS SRN WINNIPEG.  THIS
WILL STRENGTHEN NWLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO
THE UPPER MS VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE...SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL SD INITIALLY WILL MOVE SEWD
ACROSS NERN NEB MONDAY NIGHT ENHANCING CONVERGENCE ALONG QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SD ESEWD ACROSS IA...IL AND IN THRU
PARTS OF OH INTO NERN VA.

...UPPER MS AND MIDDLE MO VALLEY REGION...

BOTH MODELS ENHANCE SURFACE LOW AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT FROM ERN SD ESEWD THROUGH IA.
 AIR MASS E OF THE LOW AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY BECOMES
VERY UNSTABLE AS MODELS PROJECT SBCAPE TO BE 3000-4500 J/KG BY
13/00Z ACROSS THIS AREA.  FORECAST SOUNDING INDICATE STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 8.0-8.5 C/KM ACROSS WRN PARTS OF THE
15-25 PERCENT PROBABILITY AREA ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50
KT.  THUS...THIS AREA LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR BOW ECHO TYPE ACTIVITY
MONDAY NIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP E/NE OF THE SURFACE LOW
 OVER ERN SD NNEWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL MN. 
AS NWLY FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP
INTO SEVERAL BOW ECHO TYPE SIGNATURES THAT WILL MOVE SEWD AFFECTING
SRN MN AND MUCH OF IA BY 13/12Z.  GIVEN FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AND 0-1KM HELICITY BETWEEN 100-200 M2/S2...ISOLATED TORNADOES COULD
OCCUR OVER PARTS OF SERN SD/WRN IA EARLY MONDAY EVENING. 
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW AND HIGH
INSTABILITY...MAIN THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL.

..MCCARTHY.. 07/11/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.