[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 101702
SWODY2
SPC AC 101701

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1201 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE
RRT 15 N HIB 35 S IWD 35 S MTW 15 SE CGX 15 NNW DEC 50 E OMA 45 SSE
9V9 30 NNW GCC 70 N SHR 55 NNW GGW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N ROC 40 WNW ELM
35 ESE IPT 25 E ACY ...CONT... 25 WNW LRD 45 ESE AUS 35 N MCB 20 N
JAN 45 SE PGO 10 N FSM 35 NE SZL 15 SSE STJ 15 W MHK 35 SSE DDC CVS
25 W INK 20 SSE P07 ...CONT... 30 SSE IPL 30 S IGM 65 SE PGA 35 WSW
MTJ CYS 50 ENE DGW 30 NE WRL 30 WNW WEY 35 NNW BOI 35 SE 4LW 30 NE
RBL 45 W MHS 55 NNW MFR 65 SW PDT 15 ESE PUW 90 NW FCA.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE
WRN GREAT LAKES...

...SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST TO THE N OF DOMINANT RIDGE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN CONUS THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER THE
UPPER MS/LOWER MO VALLEYS INITIALLY. THIS FEATURE WILL TRANSLATE
ESEWD INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MEANWHILE...VIGOROUS UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL LEFT NEWD FROM THE NRN
ROCKIES INTO SRN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA WITH SRN FRINGE OF STRONG
ASCENT OVERSPREADING ERN MT AND ND ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...PRIMARY LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MT SYSTEM WILL
DEEPEN AS IT MOVES/DEVELOPS EWD FROM ERN MT TO VICINITY OF THE RED
RIVER BY MONDAY MORNING. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EWD...LIKELY
STRETCHING FROM SURFACE LOW OVER NWRN ND SWWD INTO NERN WY BY EARLY
SUNDAY EVENING. DIFFUSE WARM FRONT SHOULD ALSO EXTEND FROM THIS LOW
SEWD ACROSS ERN SD/CNTRL IA AND ACROSS THE NRN OH VALLEY AT THIS
TIME.

...NRN PLAINS EWD INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES...
MCS/S OR SEVERAL STORM CLUSTERS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING INITIALLY
FROM THE UPPER MS INTO MIDDLE MO VALLEYS AHEAD OF LEAD SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THOUGH CONVECTION WILL PROGRESSIVELY SHIFT E OF HIGH LAPSE
RATE AIR OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY...PRESENCE OF MOIST AIRMASS S OF
RETREATING WARM FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR
RENEWAL OR INTENSIFICATION OF TSTM ACTIVITY BY AFTERNOON ALONG
LEADING EDGE OF NOCTURNAL SYSTEM COLD POOL. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 20-25KT.
HOWEVER...PRESENCE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CLUSTERS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS EWD
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO SWRN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

A SECOND...POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT AREA OF SEVERE WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT PRIMARILY ACROSS ND.
HERE...STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND BOUNDARY-LAYER
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AN AXIS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF LOW AND COLD FRONT WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING
1500-2500 J/KG. WITH APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE
W...45-55KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL OVERSPREAD INSTABILITY AXIS
RESULTING IN MORE THAN SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR INDICATE DEEPLY-MIXED
BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS WITH RESULTANT HIGH LCL/LFC HEIGHTS.
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN STORM
LIFE CYCLES...ACTIVITY SHOULD TEND TO EXHIBIT OUTFLOW-DOMINANT
CHARACTERISTICS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. UPSCALE EVOLUTION INTO A FORWARD-PROPAGATING
MCS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL EXTENDING AS
FAR E AS THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY MONDAY MORNING.

..MEAD.. 07/10/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.