[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 111657
SWODY2
SPC AC 111656

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1156 AM CDT SUN JUL 11 2004

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N
CMX 30 WNW GRB 20 W RFD 25 E BRL 25 ESE P35 15 NW FNB 35 ESE BUB 25
SSW 9V9 75 N GFK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW 63S 30 ESE EPH
35 WSW PDT 65 WSW BNO 35 ENE MHS 45 W MHS 25 SW EUG 35 E AST 25 NW
BLI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GLS 40 NNE HOU 20 WNW
LFK 25 SW SHV 30 E ELD 50 N GLH 30 NNW MEM 50 NW POF 40 NNW SGF 25 E
HUT 10 E GCK 40 SSW LAA 25 NE LVS 25 WSW 4CR 15 SE ELP ...CONT... 85
WSW TUS 40 ESE GBN 25 NNE INW 45 N CEZ 40 ENE CAG 25 NE DGW 25 S REJ
35 NNE Y22 90 NE MOT ...CONT... HUL 10 ESE 3B1 15 ESE CON 15 ESE
JFK.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE NRN/CNTRL
PLAINS EWD INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES...

...SYNOPSIS...
LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED ON MONDAY WITH
GENERAL LARGE-SCALE HEIGHT RISES THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN W AND
REGION OF FALLS FROM THE NRN PLAINS EWD TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.
MORE SPECIFICALLY...DOMINANT MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED
OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES WITH REBOUNDING HEIGHTS FORECAST ACROSS THE
NRN/CANADIAN ROCKIES IN WAKE OF STRONG SYSTEM TRANSLATING SEWD
ACROSS THE SRN CANADIAN PRAIRIES. FARTHER E...SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
TRANSLATE FROM THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES/MIDDLE OH VALLEY ESEWD INTO THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING.

AT THE SURFACE...SECONDARY LOW ASSOCIATED WITH S-CNTRL CANADIAN
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP SEWD FROM CNTRL SD INTO THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY BY
EARLY MONDAY EVENING WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT PUSHING SEWD THROUGH
THE NRN PLAINS. FARTHER E...BROAD REGION OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP EWD ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH ASSOCIATED
WINDSHIFT/WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING EWD INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY BY
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...LEE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN E OF THE
CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS.

...RED RIVER/UPPER MS VALLEYS SWD INTO THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY...
LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR EPISODES
OF SEVERE TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AS HEIGHTS FALL AND
MID/UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF
VIGOROUS...S-CNTRL CANADIAN SYSTEM. STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE
NOCTURNAL MCS MAY WELL BE IN PROGRESS INITIALLY ALONG COLD FRONT
OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY. PRESENCE OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER SHOULD ALLOW DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS OVER MN
INTO WRN WI TO DESTABILIZE OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY...SUPPORTING A
CONTINUED SEWD MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM. STRENGTHENING SHEAR PROFILES IN
ADDITION TO THE DECREASING STABILITY SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL EMBEDDED
BOWS AND/OR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WITHIN
FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS.

ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ON SWRN FLANK OF
ANTICIPATED MCS AND IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
LOW. THOUGH CAP WILL BE PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER WITH WWD
EXTENT...BROAD HEIGHT FALLS AND ENHANCED CONVERGENCE E/NE OF SURFACE
LOW SHOULD PROMOTE ISOLATED/SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT INTO
PORTIONS OF ERN SD/NERN NEB DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
STRONGLY VEERING WIND PROFILES...40-50KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND
MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG ALL SUGGEST THE LIKELIHOOD OF SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES

DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY EXTEND SWD INTO IA OVERNIGHT AS
STORMS MOVE/DEVELOP SEWD OUT OF ERN SD/SRN MN.


...MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION SWD ACROSS THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT/COASTAL
PLAIN...
HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY...PROVIDING LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS TSTMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT.
WIDESPREAD RAIN/CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY LIMIT DESTABILIZATION PROCESS
AND INHERENT SEVERE THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. EXCEPTION MAY BE
INVOF LEE TROUGH AND ANY COASTAL BOUNDARIES FROM ERN VA SWD ACROSS
THE ERN CAROLINAS WHERE STRONGER INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP.
THOUGH WIND FIELDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...SOME STRENGTHENING
WILL OCCUR WITH APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WHEN COUPLED WITH
MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING
WINDS.

..MEAD.. 07/11/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.