[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 100716
SWODY2
SPC AC 100715

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0215 AM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N
DVL 45 SSW GFK 55 NW IWD ESC 10 N LAN 40 NE LAF 15 WSW DNV 25 W BRL
30 SW FOD 20 WNW HON 30 NNW GCC 70 N SHR 55 NNW GGW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW LRD 45 ESE AUS
35 N MCB 20 N JAN 45 SE PGO 10 N FSM 35 NE SZL 15 SSE STJ 15 W MHK
35 SSE DDC CVS 25 W INK 20 SSE P07 ...CONT... 30 SSE IPL 30 S IGM 65
SE PGA 35 WSW MTJ CYS 50 ENE DGW 30 NE WRL 30 WNW WEY 35 NNW BOI 35
SE 4LW 30 NE RBL 45 W MHS 55 NNW MFR 65 SW PDT 15 ESE PUW 90 NW FCA
...CONT... 35 N ROC 40 WNW ELM 35 ESE IPT 25 E ACY.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SRN U.S. SUNDAY...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NRN TIER STATES FROM THE PAC NW INTO THE
GREAT LAKES.  HERE...A SERIES OF QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL
FOCUS POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.  AT THE
SURFACE...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT STEADILY NWD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH ERN EXTENT LIFTING MORE SLOWLY INTO
THE DELMARVA.  IN THE SRN ROCKIES AND SWRN STATES...THE PATTERN WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY MONSOONAL WITH RATHER MOIST ENELY MID LEVEL FLOW
DEVELOPING AROUND BUILDING ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER CO/NRN NM.


...NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES...
REGION WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE SEVERAL STRONG TO SEVERE MCSS DURING
THE PERIOD.  INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY AND
WRN GREAT LAKES DURING THE MORNING/AFTERNOON.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MORNING MCS MAY HAVE A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT.  HOWEVER...
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT AND LOW CENTER MAY INITIATE CONVECTION BY
THE MID AFTERNOON AS FEED OF STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACROSS ERN
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  SWRN EXTENT OF STORM POTENTIAL WILL
BECOME MORE LIMITED INTO STRONG CAPPING INTO IA/NERN NEB.  HOWEVER
WHERE STORMS FORM...SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR A THREAT OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS.  OVERALL EVOLUTION
INTO A BOWING SYSTEM MAY OCCUR AS WNWLY FLOW OVERSPREADS WARM
FRONT...WITH EVENTUAL MOTION INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ALONG THIS
SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO THE EVENING.

STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL JET IS FORECAST BY
BOTH THE ETA AND GFS TO MOVE INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  THOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS PROMISING IN ITS TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF MID LEVEL JET FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...SOME CONCERN
REMAINS REGARDING INSTABILITY IN WAKE OF MORNING SYSTEM.  ATTM...
EXPECT AT LEAST A NARROW AXIS OF SELY FLOW AND MODERATE INSTABILITY
WILL DEVELOP FROM WRN SD INTO ERN MT/WRN ND BY LATE AFTERNOON. 
THUS...ANOTHER AREA OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS...IS EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY EVENING.  EWD THREAT OF
SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT ACROSS ND DURING THE EVENING WILL BE
LIMITED.  HOWEVER...INCREASING SSWLY LLJ MAY SUPPORT A LATER
DURATION TO ANY SUBSEQUENT SEVERE ACTIVITY INTO WRN/CENTRAL SD AFTER
DARK.

..EVANS.. 07/10/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.