[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 091716
SWODY2
SPC AC 091715

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1215 PM CDT FRI JUL 09 2004

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW
INL 30 ESE STC 25 NNW FOD 25 NE OMA 30 E GLD 25 SSW AKO 40 ENE CYS
15 S 81V 40 WNW 4BQ 50 S GGW 75 N OLF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW BRO 50 E SAT
55 NE CLL 15 E TYR 40 NE ADM 25 SE END 50 WSW END 25 NE PVW 20 NNW
MAF 40 SE P07 ...CONT... 85 S GBN 20 SW FLG 45 SSE U17 15 S PUC 45 E
EKO 65 WSW BNO 15 NNW DLS 65 ENE BLI ...CONT... 70 ENE CMX 20 NNW
RHI 20 ESE VOK 35 NE CGX 20 NE PIT 15 SSE ACY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE BOS 25 NW POU
50 WSW ART.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN AND
CNTRL PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY TO SOME DEGREE ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE
NRN TIER OF STATES WITH DOMINANT RIDGE REMAINING IN TACT ACROSS THE
SRN TWO-THIRDS OF THE NATION. MID/UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION CURRENTLY
OVER SRN BRITISH COLUMBIA/WA COASTS WILL OPEN AND LIFT NEWD ACROSS
THE NRN ROCKIES DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO
NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE GULF OF AK. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER NV THIS MORNING WILL BE ENTRAINED INTO FASTER FLOW
REGIME ASSOCIATED WITH PACIFIC NW SYSTEM...ALLOWING IT TO TRANSLATE
NEWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO SRN AZ WILL LIFT NEWD AROUND
PERIPHERY OF UPPER HIGH AND INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS DURING TIME OF
PEAK HEATING.

THOUGH MODELS SHOW DIFFERING SOLUTIONS ON WEAK SURFACE PATTERN
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...NCEP SREF MEAN FORECAST SUGGESTS DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT FRONT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EWD OUT OF THE NRN
HIGH PLAINS INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS DURING THE DAY WHILE LEE TROUGH IS
MAINTAINED THROUGH THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS. FARTHER E...NW-SE
ORIENTED WARM/QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS OH
VALLEY WITH A POSSIBLE WWD EXTENSION ACROSS NRN MO/SRN IA NWWD TO
SURFACE LOW OVER WRN SD.

...NRN ROCKIES ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...
STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MOIST A BOUNDARY-LAYER WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON FROM THE
DAKOTAS SWD INTO THE NEB WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 2000-3000 J/KG.
FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF NV SHORTWAVE TROUGH COUPLED WITH
CONVERGENCE INVOF SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT FRONT SHOULD AID IN TSTM
DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF ERN MT INTO THE WRN
DAKOTAS. PRESENCE OF MODESTLY STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW OF 25-35KTS ATOP
SELY BOUNDARY-LAYER WINDS WILL RESULT IN 35-45KTS OF DEEP SHEAR
ACROSS THIS AREA...SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES. LARGE
HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE INITIALLY...WITH MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT EVOLVING INTO PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS AS
FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS DEVELOPS EWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT.

FARTHER W...STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF OPENING UPPER
WAVE OVER THE PACIFIC NW WILL SPREAD NEWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THOUGH VEERING LOW-LEVEL
WINDS WILL TEND TO ERODE MOISTURE CONTENT...STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND STRONG SHEAR PROFILES MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IF
LATER MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THAT GREATER INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP THAN
IS CURRENTLY FORECAST...AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK MAY BE REQUIRED.

...CNTRL PLAINS SWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...
STRONG HEATING ALONG LEE TROUGH IN CONJUNCTION WITH FORCING AHEAD OF
APPROACHING AZ SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW FOR CAP REMOVAL AND
RESULTANT TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPES
OF 2000-3000 J/KG. THOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
RELATIVELY WEAK /I.E. AOB 20-30KTS/...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY  SHOULD
PROMOTE STRONG UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. STORMS MAY TRY TO
CONGEAL INTO CLUSTERS/SMALL MCS AHEAD OF MIGRATORY SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS NEB/NRN KS
OVERNIGHT.

...LOWER MO/OH VALLEYS...
VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL PERSIST S OF QUASI-STATIONARY OR
WARM FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS THE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS OF 70-75F.
THIS MOISTURE COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
POCKETS OF STRONG INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 2500-3500
J/KG. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK...HOWEVER THE STRONG
INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CLUSTERS
CAPABLE OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS.

..MEAD.. 07/09/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.