[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 090806
SWODY2
SPC AC 090805

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0305 AM CDT FRI JUL 09 2004

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW
INL 30 SE BJI 45 ENE STC 35 N MCW 50 S SPW YKN 55 E ANW 45 NE MCK 15
NE GLD 25 SSW AKO 40 ENE CYS 15 S 81V 45 NNE SHR 80 ENE LWT 60 NNE
OLF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S IPL 20 ENE LAS
30 ENE CDC 45 ESE DPG 40 E EKO 65 NNE 4LW 10 NW DLS 65 ENE BLI
...CONT... 70 ENE CMX 20 NNW RHI 20 ESE VOK 35 NE CGX 20 NE PIT 15
SSE ACY ...CONT... 55 S CRP 25 W VCT 55 SW LFK 15 E TYR 10 WSW MLC
30 S PNC 50 ENE GAG 35 NNE PVW 20 NNW MAF 45 ESE P07.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE BOS 25 NW POU
50 WSW ART.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER  PARTS OF THE NRN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS...

...NRN ROCKIES ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...
REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER MODERATE WLY FLOW ALOFT AS LARGE RIDGING
HOLDS OVER THE SRN 2/3S OF THE U.S.  MCS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD INVOF THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF ERN ND/WRN MN
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS ENEWD THROUGH THE MORNING. 
HOWEVER...OUTFLOW FROM THIS SYSTEM AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT
FORECAST /EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS ND DURING THE DAY/ WILL LIKELY
RE-DEVELOP STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE
SLIGHT RISK.  ETA SUGGESTS MCS MAY RE-INTENSIFY ON ITS SWRN FLANK
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS SYSTEM PROPAGATES ALONG FRINGE OF STEEP
LAPSE RATES/CAP EXTENDING OVER THE GREAT PLAINS.  IF THIS OCCURS...
A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WOULD OVERSPREAD PORTIONS OF
MN AND POSSIBLY NRN IA AS FEED OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS.  MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN WAKE
OF MORNING STORMS OVER ERN MT AND THE WRN DAKOTAS...WHERE
CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE INVOF WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT AND NEAR
DEVELOPING LEE CYCLONE.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BECOME QUITE
STRONG AS IT IS AIDED BY SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST BY BOTH THE ETA
AND GFS TO OVERSPREAD THE NRN PLAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
PERIOD.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KT ACROSS
THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WHICH WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS
AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES WITH THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT.  ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE DURING THE EVENING INTO A FORWARD-PROPAGATING
MCS AS SLY LLJ INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO EJECTING UPPER TROUGH. 
SHOULD THIS ACTIVITY REMAIN ROOTED NEAR THE BOUNDARY LAYER...
DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE QUITE LIKELY ACROSS PART OF THE NRN PLAINS
AFTER DARK.  OTHERWISE...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY SUGGESTS A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL.

FARTHER WEST INTO THE NRN ROCKIES...ETA AND GFS MAINTAIN ELY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW INTO CENTRAL MT.  THIS WILL LIKELY SUSTAIN A
RELATIVELY MOIST /I.E. SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S/ BOUNDARY LAYER...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN.  SWLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL BECOME RATHER STRONG AROUND UPPER LOW SETTLING INTO THE
PAC NW.  THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND
ENHANCE DEEP ASCENT OVER PORTIONS OF THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
AND THE NRN ROCKIES.  SHOULD SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY DEVELOP...A
SEPARATE AREA OF SEVERE PROBABILITIES/SLIGHT MAY NEED TO BE INCLUDED
FARTHER WEST THAN THE MORE EVIDENT SEVERE THREAT INTO THE PLAINS.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE SRN PLAINS...
VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODEST WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP
OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY. THIS SUGGESTS STORMS
DEVELOPING EWD OFF LEE TROUGH/HIGHER TERRAIN MAY PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS EWD INTO WRN NEB/ERN CO THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING. ETA ADVERTISES A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 25-30
KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX OVERSPREADING ERN CO INTO OK PANHANDLE/SWRN
KS LATE IN THE DAY.  SHOULD THIS MATERIALIZE...ACTIVITY MAY ORGANIZE
OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SUSTAIN A SEVERE THREAT EWD WELL INTO THE
EVENING.  A SLIGHT RISK MAY NEED TO EXTEND INTO PORTIONS OF THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS IN LATER OUTLOOKS IF WEAK MAXIMUM IN MID LEVEL WINDS
BECOMES MORE CERTAIN.

...SRN GREAT LAKES INTO THE UPPER OH RIVER VALLEY...
SURFACE WARM FRONT ALONG LEADING EDGE OF A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE WARM
SECTOR WILL SHIFT NWD INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES/UPPER OH VALLEY
REGION SATURDAY.  COMBINATION OF SURFACE FRONT AND LOCATION OF 15-20
KT WNWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL THEREFORE SUPPORT AT LEAST LOW
PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY. 
HOWEVER...WEAK LAPSE RATES AND SFC-6 KM SHEAR AOB 20 KT MAY LIMIT
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.

...FL...
MODELS SUGGEST ENELY MID LEVEL WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT SATURDAY
WITH 15-20 KT OF FLOW OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE PENINSULA.  WITH MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES NEAR -8C AND H85 TO H7 LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5
C/KM...REGION MAY BE RATHER ACTIVE CONVECTIVELY WITH AT LEAST LOW
PROBABILITIES OF A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

..EVANS.. 07/09/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.