[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 071730
SWODY2
SPC AC 071729

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT WED JUL 07 2004

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM REJ
BKX 30 SSW CID UIN 40 ENE VIH 30 N UNO SGF CNU RSL GLD 30 E DEN CYS
81V REJ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM INL CGX LUK HTS CRW
EKN 35 SE BFD 35 N ROC ...CONT... 95 W CAR BHB ...CONT... 20 E CRP
50 ESE SAT 35 SSE TPL 60 WNW LFK TYR PRX OKC GAG 45 ESE P07 MRF 40
WSW EHA LAA PUB ALS DRO CEZ 4BL 4HV 50 NE U24 MLD WEY BIL 50 WNW MLS
80 NNW ISN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S GBN GBN PHX SAD
70 SSW DMN.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO LOWER MO
VALLEY REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...NRN STREAM PATTERN IS FCST TO FLATTEN
SOMEWHAT. CLOSED GREAT LAKES LOW SHOULD MOVE EWD TOWARD SRN QUE AND
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY...BUT STILL WITH A BELT OF 70-90 KT 250 MB FLOW AND
40-50 KT WINDS AT 500 MB...THE LATTER AS FAR S AS CENTRAL/NRN VA. 
SIMILAR WINDS ALOFT ALSO SHOULD SPREAD EWD ACROSS NRN PLAINS AND
MN...SE OF CYCLONE NOW EVIDENT OVER BC.  THAT VORTEX SHOULD DRIFT
EWD ACROSS CANADIAN HIGH PLAINS DAY-2...OCCLUDED AND WITH
DEAMPLIFICATION OF JET CURVATURE TO ITS S.  SHORTWAVE FORMED BY ETA
OVER KC REGION LATE IN PERIOD IS IN FEEDBACK RESPONSE TO INTENSE
MODEL CONVECTIVE PRECIP DEVELOPMENT.

AT SFC...OUTFLOW-MODULATED FRONTAL ZONE NOW OVER WRN KY...AR AND OK
IS FCST TO RETURN NWD ACROSS KS/NEB AS WARM FRONT...CONNECTING TO
LEE CYCLONE OVER NWRN NEB BY 08/12Z.  BY LATE AFTERNOON THIS LOW
SHOULD SHIFT SWD TOWARD KS/CO BORDER REGION ALONG DECELERATING COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE SEWD FROM NRN HIGH PLAINS.  BY END OF
PERIOD...QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD LIE FROM CENTRAL/NRN MO
OR SRN IA WWD ACROSS KS/NEB BORDER AREA...THROUGH SFC LOW...AND WWD
OVER ERN CO.  FARTHER E...OCCLUDED FRONT SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY EWD FROM
HUDSON VALLEY REGION ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.

...CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY...
THROUGH AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...ELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL ADVECT
MOISTURE UPSLOPE...COMBINING WITH AFTERNOON HEATING OF HIGHER
TERRAIN TO WEAKEN CINH.  WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD FORM FROM
BLACK HILLS AREA SWD INTO NERN CO.  SOME OF THESE SHOULD BECOME
SUPERCELLULAR GIVEN 0-6 KM AGL SHEARS RANGING FROM 65 KT OVER BLACK
HILLS AREA TO 35-40 KT IN CO.  ACTIVITY SHOULD BE RATHER HIGH BASED
ATOP DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...SUPPORTING BOTH LARGE HAIL AND
SEVERE DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL.  SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY SUBSEQUENTLY MAY
REACH CENTRAL PORTIONS NEB/SD AND NWRN/N-CENTRAL KS MAINTAINING
WIND/HAIL THREAT ON NOSE OF 50 KT WRN BRANCH LLJ.

CONDITIONAL RISK EXISTS FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS
TORNADOES FARTHER E.  AFTERNOON INITIATION INVOF WARM FRONT...OVER
ERN NEB REGION...IS MUCH MORE IN DOUBT BECAUSE OF POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT CAPPING.  BUT IF IT OCCURS...EXPLOSIVE SUPERCELL GENESIS
IS POSSIBLE.  SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF
DAY...AND WLYS ALOFT WILL ADVECT ELEVATED MIXED-LAYER AIRMASS
OVERHEAD FROM HIGH PLAINS AND ROCKIES...MAINTAINING STOUT CAP. 
MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT CINH SHOULD WEAKEN BY LATE
AFTERNOON ALONG FRONT...AND FRONTAL LIFT MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
YIELD DEEP CONVECTION. ANY TSTMS THAT DO DEVELOP INVOF WARM FRONT
SHOULD BECOME SEVERE RAPIDLY IN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
FAVORABLY BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW AND EXTREME INSTABILITY. 
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION AIDED SFC DEW POINTS IN MID 60S TO LOW 70S AND 9
DEG C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES 3500-5500
J/KG...AND 0-3 KM SRH 150-300 J/KG IS POSSIBLE WHERE THERE IS
SFC-BASED BUOYANCY.

WHETHER AS EXTENSION/EVOLUTION OF AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT OR WITH
LATER/ELEVATED INITIATION N OF WARM FRONT...A TSTM COMPLEX SHOULD
FORM AFTER DARK INVOF LOWER MO VALLEY WITH SEVERE WIND AND HAIL
POSSIBLE.  ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE SEWD TO SWD ACROSS PORTIONS ERN
KS/MO BASED ON ERN BRANCH OF 30-40 KT LLJ...AND EFFECT OF RELATED
BACKBUILDING ON MCS MOTION VECTOR FCSTS.

...NERN CONUS...
PROGS INDICATE AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING E OF OCCLUDED FRONT TO SUPPORT TSTM
DEVELOPMENT.  LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE FCST TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MAY FAVOR A FEW MULTICELL CLUSTERS OR LINE SEGMENTS
WITH STRONG GUSTS...AND PERHAPS ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
ISOLATED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON INVOF DRYLINE...ATOP
STRONGLY HEATED AND DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS. CAPPING SHOULD
RESTRICT COVERAGE BUT ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS MAY BRIEFLY PRODUCE
HAIL/GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS. WEAK LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW/SHEAR SHOULD
RESTRICT ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL.

..EDWARDS.. 07/07/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.