[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 060734
SWODY2
SPC AC 060733

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0233 AM CDT TUE JUL 06 2004

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N
PNC 20 SW HUT 45 N RSL 15 WSW HSI 35 SSW OLU 25 E LNK 25 E STJ 40 N
SZL 50 SSE SZL SGF 30 SSW JLN 10 N PNC.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW
ART 10 E IPT 30 NNW CXY 20 SW MRB 20 N SSU 35 SE LOZ 25 SSW LOZ 30 N
LOZ 20 WNW UNI 35 SW CAK 40 NNE CLE.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NW
MOT 45 E MLS 30 NW BPI 35 ESE BYI 10 SSW TWF 50 ESE BOI 65 NE BOI 20
S 3DU 20 SW GTF 30 NW HVR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NW DVL 40 NNW 81V
45 SSE LND 50 SW RWL 50 WSW COS 30 SSE PUB 20 ESE LHX 20 N GLD 15
WNW VTN 30 SE 9V9 30 SE SUX 25 W IRK 15 NE JEF 25 NNW UNO 20 WNW POF
15 S OWB 35 WNW LUK 25 WSW FDY 35 ENE PLN ...CONT... 60 W 3B1 10 SSE
PSM ...CONT... 10 SSE P07 30 NNW ALM 60 W GCN 60 NNE NID 35 NNW BIH
35 NNW LOL 60 E BKE 65 N 3DU 55 NE CTB.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN ROCKIES
AND NRN HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL
PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND
NRN APPALACHIAN MTNS...

...NRN ROCKIES/NRN HIGH PLAINS...
A BROAD UPPER-TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD INTO THE NWRN STATES ON DAY 2 AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD ACROSS MT AND ID. THIS WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR SCATTERED STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS STRONG LIFT SPREADS EWD
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX AROUND 60 KT
WILL CREATE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
STORMS ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP. INVERTED-V
SOUNDING PROFILES AND 500 MB TEMPS IN THE -13 TO -15 C RANGE WILL
FAVOR A HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS THAT
DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

...CNTRL PLAINS...
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SLIDE EWD ON DAY
2 AND AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN THE GREAT PLAINS STATES.
STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AS A STATIONARY FRONT IN THE
SRN PLAINS LIFTS NWD INTO KS DURING THE DAY. A CAPPING INVERSION
SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...STRONG LIFT OVER THE WARM FRONT AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET
INTENSIFIES IN THE EVENING SHOULD CAUSE ELEVATED STORMS TO INITIATE
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. MODERATE DEEP SHEAR AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL RESULT IN A POTENTIAL FOR BOW ECHOES WITH WIND DAMAGE
POTENTIAL. IF AN MCS CAN GET GOING...IT SHOULD RIDE SEWD ALONG THE
INSTABILITY GRADIENT FROM SE NEB ACROSS ERN KS AND WRN MO.  

...CNTRL AND NRN APPALACHIAN MTNS...
A WELL-DEVELOPED UPPER-TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE NRN MS VALLEY WILL
MOVE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON DAY 2. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A COLD
FRONT INTO THE OH VALLEY DURING THE DAY. STRONG ASCENT WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH AND ADEQUATE SFC HEATING FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY
SHOULD RESULT IN STORM INITIATION ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 25 TO 30 KT OF DEEP SHEAR WHICH
WILL BE ENOUGH FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS. UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
PROFILES WILL RESULT IN A WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY AS THE
STORMS MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE INSTABILITY AXIS IN ERN OH...WRN PA AND
WRN WV.

..BROYLES.. 07/06/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.