[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 070710
SWODY2
SPC AC 070709

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0209 AM CDT WED JUL 07 2004

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S
AXN 20 WSW MLI 30 NE ALN 20 NNW PAH 40 S PAH 30 ENE JBR 20 SW UNO 20
ESE OJC 35 SSW FNB 45 S HSI 25 N MCK 20 ENE SNY 60 SSE 81V 20 E 81V
20 E REJ 30 NW ABR 40 S AXN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW ELO 45 E DLH
35 S OSH 20 NNW SDF 50 N CSV 25 SE 5I3 15 S BFD 45 NE ROC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S PSX 10 NNW LFK
35 SE HOT 15 ESE FYV 35 SSW EMP 30 SE RSL 45 SSW HLC 50 WSW GLD 15
SSE DEN 25 NE ALS 40 N 4SL 25 SSW FMN 25 S PGA 20 E P38 15 ENE ELY
20 WSW IDA 35 S LVM 75 NE BIL 75 NNW ISN.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NE/SD SEWD TO MID MS VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...
MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN AS HEIGHTS RISE AND FLOW WEAKENS S
OF 40N WITH STRONGER WLYS NEAR CANADIAN BORDER.  VIGOROUS TROUGH NOW
MOVING ACROSS SWRN CANADA SHIFTS INTO PRAIRIE PROVINCES WITH FAST
WLYS FROM NRN ROCKIES EWD TO UPPER MS VALLEY BY THU NIGHT AS FLAT
RIDGE PROGRESSES EWD TO WRN GREAT LAKES.  TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NERN
U.S. REACHING NEW ENGLAND AND OFFSHORE MID ATLANTIC BY 12Z FRI.

...NEB/SD SEWD TO MID MS/LWR MO VALLEY...

LEE LOW DEVELOPS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS STEEP LAPSE RATES SPREAD EWD
ACROSS SD/NE/KS ON SRN FRINGE OF WLYS. THIS WILL PROVIDE A CAP TO
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MUCH OF THE DAY...HOWEVER IT WILL ALSO ALLOW
THE AIR MASS TO BECOME EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AS VERY MOIST AIRMASS
MOVES NWD ON THE SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.

MODELS ARE INDICATING BY AFTERNOON...MLCAPES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG
WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN NEB INTO KS AS DEWPOINTS
RISE TO ABOVE 70F AND 850MB DEWPOINTS PROGGED TO NEAR 20C.  

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP BOTH IN THE UPSLOPE FLOW 
IN WRN NE/SD AREA ON THE N SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW AND IN THE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE EDGE OF THE CAPE SOMEWHERE VICINITY ERN
NE/SD BORDER.  THIS SECOND AREA HAS THE  GREATEST INSTABILITY WHICH
IF REALIZED WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE
HAIL AND AT LEAST AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT.

A SEVERE MCS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE BY THU NIGHT AND PROPAGATE IN THE
WARM ADVECTION REGIME ON THE EDGE OF THE CAP SEWD ACROSS IA INTO NRN
MO.

ADDITIONAL STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THROUGH LOWER MO VALLEY WHERE CAP WILL BE WEAKEST
AND THE AIR MASS STILL VERY UNSTABLE UNDER A WEAK WARM ADVECTION
PATTERN.

...NERN U.S...
MODELS SUGGEST THAT LAPSE RATES AROUND 6C/KM AND MLCAPES NOT MUCH
GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE FRONT.  GIVEN THE 30-40 KT OF
MID LEVEL FLOW WITH THE TROUGH AS FAR S AS DELMARVA...AT LEAST
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

..HALES.. 07/07/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.