[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 061740
SWODY2
SPC AC 061740

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 PM CDT TUE JUL 06 2004

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PNC
RSL HSI OLU 40 N SZL 50 SSE SZL SGF 30 SSW JLN PNC.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MSS 30
WSW ALB TTN SSU BKW HTS ZZV 40 NNE CLE.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 N
DVL 45 W JMS MBG 81V WRL COD 25 ESE LVM 3HT LWT 65 NNW GGW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 W 3B1 10 SSE PSM
...CONT... 80 N GFK 45 NNW ABR 40 WNW PIR 35 SSE LND 50 WSW COS EHA
DDC MCK VTN 30 SE 9V9 30 SE SUX 25 N IRK 40 NE COU 40 SSE VIH POF 15
S OWB 35 WNW LUK 25 WSW FDY 35 ENE PLN ...CONT... 20 SSW P07 30 NNW
ALM P38 50 N NID 40 SW TVL SVE 60 E BKE MSO 70 NW FCA.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS MID ATLANTIC/NRN
APPALACHIANS REGION...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL PLAINS/LOWER
MO VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS NRN HIGH PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...NRN STREAM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE
PROGRESSIVE WITH MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER GREAT LAKES AND NRN
ROCKIES REGIONS...AND MINOR/CONVECTIVELY-ENHANCED/INDUCED
PERTURBATIONS POSSIBLE FARTHER S FROM SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO ATLANTIC
COAST. UPPER LOW NOW LOCATED OVER SRN MN IS FCST TO ANCHOR TROUGH
THAT WILL MOVE EWD SLOWLY TOWARD E-CENTRAL ONT...LH AND MIDDLE OH
VALLEY DAY-2.  UPSTREAM SYSTEM -- NOW EVIDENT ON MOISTURE CHANNEL
IMAGERY AS LARGE CYCLONE OVER COASTAL BC/AK PANHANDLE...WILL MOVE
ACROSS CANADIAN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS DURING THIS PERIOD. 
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD ROTATE THROUGH BASE OF CYCLONE --
ACROSS WA...NRN ID...NWRN MT AND SRN SASK.

AT SFC...OCCLUDED CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF SRN/ERN ONT
THROUGH PERIOD...WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD ACROSS OH
VALLEY REGION AND STALLING ACROSS OZARKS REGION.  THIS BOUNDARY WILL
EXTEND NWWD AS WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS AND NRN HIGH
PLAINS...INTO SRN SASK/ERN MT SFC LOW INDUCED BY NWRN STATES SYSTEM.

WRN COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP SEWD ACROSS MOST OF MT...ID AND NRN/WRN
WY BY END OF PERIOD.  WEAK SFC LOW MAY ALSO DEVELOP OVER PIEDMONT
REGION OF CAROLINAS...AMIDST PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING NWD OVER
PA.

...NERN CONUS...
THERE IS CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR A CONCENTRATED DAMAGING WIND
EVENT OVER PORTIONS UPPER OH VALLEY...NRN APPALACHIANS AND ADJACENT
PORTIONS MID ATLANTIC STATES.  SEVERE THREAT OVER MUCH OF THIS AREA
COULD BE STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY EFFECTS OF DAY-1 COMPLEXES ON AIR
MASS...AND THAT IS PRECLUDING LARGER PROBABILITIES AND CATEGORICAL
RISK ATTM.  ALSO...OVERNIGHT DAY-1 MCS MAY CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF
THIS REGION EARLY IN DAY-2 PERIOD WITH WIND DAMAGE BEING MAIN
THREAT.  PRECONVECTIVE AIR MASS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR BOW ECHOES AND
ALSO OCCASIONAL LARGE HAIL. SFC DEW POINTS MID 60S TO LOW 70S SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...AWAY FROM PRE-EXISTING OUTFLOW POOLS. VERTICAL WIND
PROFILES ARE FCST TO BE ROUGHLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH 20-30 KT
DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR.

...CENTRAL PLAINS/LOWER MO VALLEY...
SCATTERED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON -- OR MORE LIKELY AFTER
DARK -- AND EVOLVE INTO MCS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS
POSSIBLE.  AFTERNOON AIR MASS WILL BE POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE
INVOF AND S OF WARM FRONT OVER OK AND SRN KS...AS RICHLY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER RETURNS NWD ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS.  SFC DEW
POINTS MID 60S TO LOW 70S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES 2000-3500 J/KG
AMIDST 8-9 DEG C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES.  HOWEVER...EXPECT STRONG
CAPPING --- AMIDST WLY/WNWLY FLOW ALOFT AND INVOF MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE
RIDGE -- TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE BEFORE DARK.  NOCTURNAL LOW
LEVEL WAA SHOULD SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH ELEVATED MUCAPE
1500-2500 J/KG POSSIBLE...AND STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR.

...NRN ROCKIES...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS MAY DEVELOP DURING AFTERNOON
INVOF SFC COLD FRONT...MOVING EWD ACROSS ERN MT/WRN DAKOTAS AREA
AFTER DARK...WITH DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL POSSIBLE.  VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES AND INSTABILITY ARE EACH FCST TO STRENGTHEN THROUGHOUT DAY
INVOF FRONT...AS TROUGH ALOFT APCHS AND AS DIABATIC HEATING STEEPENS
BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES.  MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE LACK OF
RICHER MOISTURE...HOWEVER...SFC DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN UPPER 40S
AND LOW-MID 50S F WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPES ABOVE
DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS.  THIS ALONG WITH 40-50 KT MIDLEVEL
FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT AND
PROPAGATION.  INCREASINGLY MOIST 30-40 KT LLJ SHOULD SUPPORT
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER PORTIONS WRN ND AND/OR NWRN SD AFTER 08/00Z.


...TIDEWATER REGION...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP DURING AFTERNOON...
MULTICELLULAR AND PULSE IN MODE...WITH A FEW DAMAGING WIND EVENTS
POSSIBLE.  PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE E OF LEE/PREFRONTAL
TROUGH...WHERE INSOLATION AND SFC MOISTENING SHOULD LEAD TO ROUGHLY
1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE. SEVERE POTENTIAL DOES NOT APPEAR
SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED TO WARRANT CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK ATTM.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
OROGRAPHICALLY AIDED CONVECTION SHOULD FORM IN STRONGEST DIABATIC
HEATING PERIOD OF MID-LATE AFTERNOON.  OTHER TSTMS MAY FORM ALONG
BOUNDARIES LEFT BEHIND BY DAY-1 CONVECTION.  DEEP SUBCLOUD LAYERS
AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED...WITH MLCAPES 1000-2000
J/KG POSSIBLE. HAIL AND A FEW STRONG-SEVERE DOWNDRAFTS MAY
OCCUR...BUT LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR EACH APPEAR TOO
WEAK TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE EVENT.

..EDWARDS.. 07/06/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.