[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 051738
SWODY2
SPC AC 051737

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1237 PM CDT MON JUL 05 2004

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ERI
FKL PIT PKB HTS BWG HOP 35 N MEM PBF TXK 20 NW MWL ABI 40 S MAF INK
CNM 40 NW ROW PUB DEN FCL 35 ENE AKO 40 E LAA DDC HUT COU SPI BEH
MKG 30 S TVC APN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW MRF GDP ONM
GNT DRO GUC ASE EGE 40 W CAG OGD EKO LOL NFL 50 WNW DRA 35 SW BIH 55
NE MER MHS MFR 55 ENE BLI ...CONT... 65 N OLF OLF 4BQ 40 N RAP 40
SSW PHP MHN HLC RSL SLN MHK 30 WNW FNB YKN BKX STC MQT ...CONT... 35
NW SYR ITH BWI 45 SSW DCA LYH AVL AHN MCN AYS SSI ...CONT... GLS 35
SSW CLL AUS HDO 70 NW LRD.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OH/LOWER MI SWWD TO SRN HIGH
PLAINS AND CO FRONT RANGE...

...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID/UPPER LEVELS...PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH DAY-2. TROUGH NOW EVIDENT ON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER
SRN ONT AND E-CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION IS FCST TO EXIT NEW ENGLAND
COAST NEAR BEGINNING OF PERIOD.  PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW
OVER CENTRAL PLAINS IS FCST TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY THROUGH EARLY
DAY-2 AS IT EJECTS NEWD ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES...IN RESPONSE TO
PROGRESS/AMPLIFICATION OF UPSTREAM PERTURBATION NOW OVER WY/MT.
LATTER FEATURE WILL MOVE FROM CENTRAL PLAINS TO MS VALLEY BY
07/12Z...ANCHORED BY A MIDLEVEL CYCLONE CENTERED INVOF WRN LS.

ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SHOULD MOVE FROM PRESENTLY ANALYZED POSITION OVER
SWRN IA...ENEWD ACROSS LOWER MI DAY-2. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE FROM MID MS VALLEY TOWARD ERN OH...AND SWD ACROSS CENTRAL
PLAINS TO OK AND TX PANHANDLE. BY 07/00Z...SECONDARY SFC LOW IS
PROGGED BY ETA/NGM INVOF FRONT...OVER LOWER PECOS VALLEY REGION OF
SERN NM AND W TX.

...GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY TO OZARKS...
SCATTERED SEVERE TSTMS -- INCLUDING SOME SUPERCELLS AND BOWS -- ARE
POSSIBLE DURING DAY.  MOIST ADVECTION AND DIURNAL HEATING IN WARM
SECTOR WILL RAISE MLCAPES TO AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG BY 18-21Z TIME
FRAME FROM SRN LOWER MI ACROSS PORTIONS OH/INDIANA.  VERTICAL SHEAR
SUPPORTING SUPERCELLS -- AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO THREAT -- WILL BE
POSSIBLE E OF SFC LOW OVER MI/INDIANA BORDER REGION...WHERE BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW IS MOST STRONGLY BACKED.  DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES SHOULD
BECOME MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL FARTHER S ACROSS MORE OF
INDIANA/OH...AHEAD OF SFC FRONT...INDICATING PRIMARY THREAT OF WIND
DAMAGE.

OVERALL SEVERE PROBABILITIES SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SWWD EXTENT ACROSS
INDIANA TO OZARKS REGION...AS BOUNDARY LAYER VEERING IN WARM SECTOR
LIMITS FRONTAL CONVERGENCE/LIFT.  STILL...AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS DURING
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  EXPECT NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER
FLOW...WEAK SHEAR...AND SFC DEW POINTS FROM MID 60S TO LOW 70S F
SUPPORTING 1500-2500 MLCAPE.

...SRN PLAINS...
STRONG SIGNAL EXISTS IN ETA FOR LATE DAY-1 AND EARLY DAY-2 MCS
SWEEPING SEWD FROM CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ACROSS SW KS...TOWARD NRN OK.
 AIR MASS AND MEAN FLOW FIELDS WILL BE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT THIS
SCENARIO...WITH ELEVATED MUCAPE 2000-2500 J/KG POSSIBLE INVOF KS/OK
BORDER AT BEGINNING OF PERIOD...ALONG WITH MOIST 30-40 KT LLJ. 
PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE CONCENTRATED POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
WIND...WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE.  SUCH A COMPLEX MAY
SURVIVE LONG ENOUGH TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN OK AND REINTENSIFY
AGAIN OVER AR BY AFTERNOON HEATING PERIOD...THOUGH SEVERE THREAT
WILL BE MORE CONDITIONAL WITH TIME AND WITH EWD EXTENT.

SUBSEQUENT SEVERE THREAT OVER OK AND PERHAPS TX PANHANDLE WILL
DEPEND ON POSITION AND STRENGTH OF STABILIZING OUTFLOW EFFECTS FROM
SUCH A COMPLEX.  IN ANY EVENT...UNMODIFIED AIR MASS SHOULD
DESTABILIZE FAVORABLY BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...FROM CO FRONT
RANGE/FOOTHILLS REGION SWD INTO NM -- AND PERHAPS EWD INVOF 
FRONTAL/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER TX PANHANDLE.  DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
PROFILES WILL BE ENHANCED BY ELY/UPSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT...SUPPORTING
POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS.  ANOTHER MCS MAY EVOLVE FROM
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION THIS REGION AND MOVE SEWD ACROSS SRN
HIGH PLAINS.

..EDWARDS.. 07/05/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.