[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 050734
SWODY2
SPC AC 050733

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0233 AM CDT MON JUL 05 2004

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE
MAF 40 NNE CNM 40 E 4CR 30 WNW RTN 35 NNE TAD 25 S LAA 15 ESE LBL 30
NW PNC 10 E SZL 10 NNE PIA 20 SSE MKE 20 S MBL 20 N MBS 35 ESE MTC
35 NNW ZZV 10 E LEX 30 WSW HOP 45 ENE PRX 15 WSW ABI 15 NNE MAF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW JHW 20 S PSK 35
SSW CHS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W ELP 75 ESE SOW
55 NE IGM 35 SW BIH 60 NE MER 40 WSW RNO 50 ENE SVE 40 ENE OWY 40 SW
MLD 30 NNE VEL 45 SE RWL 40 N CYS 15 SW SNY 35 WNW GLD 50 SW HLC SLN
35 NE STJ 10 SSW MCW 45 NW EAU 20 ENE IWD 80 WNW ANJ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 N OLF 40 WSW 4BQ
30 SSE WRL 40 WNW LND 30 W JAC 60 ENE S80 30 NNW 4OM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...OZARK PLATEAU...OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES...

...SRN PLAINS/OZARK PLATEAU...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WILL MOVE EWD
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON DAY 2. THIS WILL
CAUSE A COLD FRONT TO DROP SWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU
ON TUESDAY. THE STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO
THE EAST OF THE FRONTAL ZONE BY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS
FOR INITIATION. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE
OZARK PLATEAU WITH ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE IN WRN OK AND W TX.

SFC DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 F WILL EXIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS
OK...AR AND MO AND THIS WILL HELP CREATE MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY BY AFTERNOON. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 20 TO 30 KT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
WILL KEEP THE MAIN MODE OF CONVECTION MULTICELLULAR.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF LOCALLY
ENHANCED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR.

LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO BE STEEPEST FROM W TX ACROSS OK. THIS
WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR LARGE HAIL. THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA
FOR WIND DAMAGE WILL BE ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU WHERE STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL EXIST DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. IF A COLD POOL CAN GENERATE...WIND DAMAGE COULD
BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THIS REGION. IF A LINEAR MCS CAN DEVELOP
...THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HOWEVER...IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE THIS ENHANCED
SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST OVERNIGHT.

...OH VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES...

A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON DAY 2 AND
THIS WILL RESULT IN CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER COULD BE ONGOING ACROSS THE
REGION AHEAD OF STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EWD...A COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SEWD INTO
IL AND IND DURING THE DAY. IN ADDITION...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NEWD
ACROSS IND...OH AND WV. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG BOTH OF THE
FRONTS COMBINED WITH STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT
FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
STORMS SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE...SWD TOWARD THE HIGHER INSTABILITY
FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE OH RIVER.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP SHEAR OF ABOUT 30 KT WHICH COMBINED
WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR MULTICELL CONVECTION AS THE
PRIMARY MODE. HOWEVER A FEW SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
GREATER INSTABILITY ACROSS IL DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE
MARGINAL...HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. THE
BETTER THREAT SHOULD BE WIND DAMAGE ESPECIALLY WITH BOWING SEGMENTS
THAT ORGANIZE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE
DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE CONVECTION MOVES AWAY FROM THE
LOW-LEVEL JET CROSSING THE OH RIVER.

..BROYLES.. 07/05/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.