[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 041746
SWODY2
SPC AC 041745

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 PM CDT SUN JUL 04 2004

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE
SGF 20 ENE OKC 25 WSW LTS 40 WNW CDS 15 SSW EHA 25 SE PUB 45 NE LAR
25 NW AIA 30 NE IML 20 N EAR 40 SE FSD 30 N MCW 25 SSW DNV 50 SE IND
20 WNW JKL 20 W CSV 15 ENE POF 25 ESE SGF.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE
EFK 25 NW ORH 25 NE NEL 30 ESE MRB 15 NW UNI 30 N CMH 50 NNE CLE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 ENE HVR 45 N MLS
50 SW MBG 35 N ABR BRD 20 SSW IMT 10 NNE MKG 10 ESE LAN 40 NNE MTC
...CONT... PSX 40 SE CLL 30 NNE TXK 30 SSE MLC 20 SE MWL 25 SSE JCT
65 SSE DRT ...CONT... 70 S MRF INK 50 W AMA 45 WSW CAO 30 SW 4CR 20
NNW SVC 40 N SAD 65 N INW 20 SSW 4HV 35 WNW PUC 40 ENE EVW 45 SW JAC
25 N DLN 30 WNW S06 45 NE 63S.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
EWD TO THE MID MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES / NERN CONUS...

...SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN -- FEATURING A BROAD CENTRAL / ERN U.S.
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH WITH NUMEROUS EMBEDDED SMALLER-SCALE FEATURES --
WILL SHIFT EWD WITH TIME AS WEAK LARGE-SCALE RIDGE DEVELOPS WITH
TIME DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE WRN U.S. / ROCKIES. WEAK RIDGE WILL ALSO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST / GULF COAST REGION...SUGGESTING THAT
THE MAIN AREA FOR ACTIVE WEATHER THIS PERIOD SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE
HIGH PLAINS EWD ACROSS THE MID AND UPPER MS / OH VALLEYS INTO THE
NORTHEAST.

AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND IN AN ARC FROM
LOWER MI WSWWD INTO SRN IA / NRN MO...AND FROM THERE CURVING WNWWD
ACROSS NEB INTO ERN MT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.  WHILE ERN
PORTIONS OF THIS FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EWD / SEWD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES / NORTHEAST...WEAK LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY OVER ERN NEB / WRN IA AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH CONSOLIDATES OVER
THE PLAINS.  AS THIS LOW SHIFTS EWD ACROSS IA THROUGH THE EVENING
ALONG SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE...NLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE LOW
SHOULD ALLOW COOL FRONT TO SURGE SWD ACROSS THE PLAINS.  BY LATE IN
THE PERIOD...COOLER / DRIER AIRMASS SHOULD SPREAD AS FAR SWD AS SWRN
KS BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

...THE PLAINS EWD TO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. REMNANT OUTFLOWS -- ALONG
WITH COLD FRONT MOVING SWD ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON --
WILL LIKELY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING OF MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS BENEATH
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AGAIN RESULTS IN MODERATE TO STRONG
DESTABILIZATION.  STORMS SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON /
EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS INCREASING ELY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW JUST N OF SWD-MOVING COLD FRONT PROVIDES FAVORABLE UPSLOPE /
UVV FOR STORM INITIATION.

WITH MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS FORECAST TO CONSOLIDATE /
SHARPEN WITH TIME...BELT OF MODERATE /30 TO 40 KT/ WLY FLOW WILL
LIKELY BE MAINTAINED ABOVE GENERALLY SLY / SELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS. 
RESULTING SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED / SEVERE STORMS...WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE.  GREATEST STORM COVERAGE -- AND
THUS HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITY -- WILL LIKELY EXIST FROM ERN CO EWD
ACROSS KS TO THE MID MS VALLEY WHERE COMBINATION OF STRONGEST
INSTABILITY AND MOST FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD EXIST. 
STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE / MOVE ESEWD ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES OVER THIS AREA.


...THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION / NORTHEAST...
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THIS REGION BY
MID-AFTERNOON ALONG COLD FRONT / AHEAD OF SHARP SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
WHICH SHOULD BE MOVING ACROSS SERN ONTARIO AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
DURING THE AFTERNOON.  ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
RELATIVELY WEAK OVER THIS AREA...DAYTIME HEATING OF MOIST LOW-LEVEL
AIRMASS SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT.


FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD -- INCLUDING 40 TO 45 KT MID-LEVEL
FLOW SPREADING EWD ACROSS THIS REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH MID-LEVEL
TROUGH -- WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS
THE MOST LIKELY THREAT.  STORMS SHOULD SPREAD EWD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING WITH DIURNAL STABILIZATION. 
ALTHOUGH SOME QUESTION EXISTS ATTM WITH REGARD TO DEGREE OF DAYTIME
HEATING / AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION -- WHICH WILL LIKELY MODULATE
DEGREE OF THREAT -- ADDITION OF SLIGHT RISK AREA APPEARS JUSTIFIED
ATTM.

..GOSS.. 07/04/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.