[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 040732
SWODY2
SPC AC 040730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT SUN JUL 04 2004

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE
SGF 20 ENE OKC 25 WSW LTS 40 WNW CDS 15 SSW EHA 25 SE PUB 45 NE LAR
25 NW AIA 30 NE IML 20 N EAR 40 SE FSD 30 N MCW 40 ENE MLI 25 W UNI
15 N TRI 20 W CSV 25 WSW CGI 25 NE SGF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 S MRF 20 N INK 20
NE LBB 10 S DHT 20 SSE RTN 4SL 35 SSW 4BL 20 SW BCE 30 NW DRA 40 E
NID 40 NNE BFL 45 E UKI 45 E ACV 25 ESE LMT 20 S BAM 45 E SLC 35 W
RKS 25 SSE IDA 30 ENE BOI 20 SE PDT 55 NW 4OM ...CONT... 60 ENE HVR
55 NNW MLS 45 SW BIS 35 SE DVL 45 NNE BJI 35 NW IWD 30 SSW IMT 20
WSW GRR 20 NNE MFD 30 ENE FKL 20 NW ITH 15 WSW MSS ...CONT... 10 SSE
BPT 40 N ESF 20 SSW HOT 30 SSE MLC 15 SE MWL 25 SSE JCT 65 SSE DRT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL/SRN
PLNS AND MID MS/LWR OH VLYS...

...SYNOPSIS...
LOW AMPLITUDE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LWR 48 ON
MONDAY...DOWNSTREAM FROM SPLIT JET OVER WRN CANADA.  FARTHER S...
WEAK RIDGE EXPECTED TO ELONGATE FROM THE SWRN DESERTS TO THE
INTERIOR SERN U.S.  IMPULSE NOW OVER THE SRN GRT BASIN SHOULD LIFT
NE FROM THE CNTRL PLNS TO THE MID MS VLY DURING THE PERIOD...AND
PARTIALLY PHASE WITH STRONGER MIDDLE STREAM IMPULSE NOW ENTERING THE
PACIFIC NW.  IN THE EAST...TRAILING SRN PART OF TROUGH NOW OVER THE
MIDWEST WILL MOVE E/SE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND SRN NEW
ENGLAND.

AT LWR LEVELS...SURFACE WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH PLNS IMPULSE EXPECTED
TO MOVE FROM NRN KS TO NERN IA AS FRONT EXTENDING SW FROM ERN U.S.
DISTURBANCE BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE OH VLY.

...CNTRL/SRN PLNS TO MID MS VLY...
AN MCS MAY BE IN PROGRESS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD OVER MO/SRN
IA...IN WARM ADVECTION AREA DOWNSTREAM FROM UPPER IMPULSE ENTERING
THE CNTRL PLNS. ANOTHER CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MAY BE PRESENT FARTHER W
OVER NEB/NW KS...LEFT OVER FROM OVERNIGHT STORMS IN THE HI PLNS.

THE MO MCS SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP S/SE ALONG STALLING FRONT OVER THE
MID MS/LWR OH VLYS LATER MONDAY AS SURFACE HEATING BOOSTS MLCAPE TO
AOA 1500 J/KG. WITH MID LEVEL WLY FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 35-40 KT AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 7 DEG C PER KM...SETUP SHOULD
SUPPORT BANDS/CLUSTERS OF SUSTAINED STORMS AND POSSIBLE EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS WITH HIGH WIND AND HAIL INTO THE EVENING.

OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT IN ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/LARGE SCALE ASCENT
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF CNTRL PLNS UPPER TROUGH...AND INVOF ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW.  STORMS MAY ALSO FORM ON ANY OUTFLOW LEFT BY WEAKENING
OVERNIGHT NEB/KS CONVECTION.

COMBINATION OF MODERATE /30-40 KT/ DEEP WSWLY SHEAR...RICH BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE INFLOW...STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS/
SUPERCELL CLUSTERS WITH LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND AND...DEPENDING ON
CONFIGURATION OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES...A COUPLE TORNADOES.  THIS
ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD NWD/AND INTO PARTS OF IA MONDAY EVENING AS
SURFACE LOW MOVES NEWD.

ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT SWD ALONG LEE TROUGH INTO SRN KS/NRN OK... AND IN ZONE OF
UPSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF SECONDARY COOL SURGE IN SE WY/SW NEB AND ERN
CO.  BOTH AREAS MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO E/SE-MOVING MCSS LATE MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.


...MID ATLANTIC STATES/NEW ENG...
SCATTERED STORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE EMBEDDED IN MORE GENERAL
SHOWERS...WILL AFFECT THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND PARTS OF NEW ENG. 
WEAK LAPSE RATES SHOULD MITIGATE DEGREE/COVERAGE OF ANY ASSOCIATED
SEVERE THREAT.

..CORFIDI.. 07/04/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.