[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 031752
SWODY2
SPC AC 031750

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 PM CDT SAT JUL 03 2004

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW
ROC 25 W ELM 20 SSE AOO 20 W SSU 40 WSW BNA 55 SW ARG 25 SW TUL 30
SSW GCK 25 S SNY 30 SSE 4BQ 45 NW MLS 55 NW GGW 30 NE GGW 60 N PHP
20 SSW SUX 15 N OTM 25 NE PIA 35 NNE CGX 25 SE MBL 50 NE APN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NNE ISN 55 NNE MBG
25 ESE ABR 30 NW STC 50 ENE ELO ...CONT... 15 NNW EFK 15 SE LEB 15
SE GON ...CONT... 35 W HUM 35 SE JAN 15 NNE TXK 40 SSW ADM 20 NNW
ABI 30 NW DRT ...CONT... 75 SSW GBN 45 ESE GBN 70 NW TCS 45 SE GNT
85 NW GUP 30 SW PGA 40 NE P38 55 ENE TPH 15 N LOL 80 N WMC 25 NNW
TWF 70 SSE S80 10 NW LWS 35 NNW 63S.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE
MID MS AND OH VALLEYS / GREAT LAKES...

...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD / FLAT MEAN TROUGH AT MID-LEVELS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL 2/3 OF THE CONUS THIS PERIOD...WHILE RIDGES ARE FORECAST
ALONG BOTH THE W AND E COASTS. WITHIN COMPLEX CENTRAL U.S. MEAN
TROUGH...NUMEROUS SMALLER SCALE FEATURES WILL MOVE EWD IN MODERATE
WLY / CYCLONIC FLOW.  ONE OF THE STRONGER OF THESE SMALLER SCALE
FEATURES WILL MOVE ENEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY / GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE A SECOND MOVES ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES
TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS LATER IN THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...FAIRLY STRONG LOW INITIALLY EXPECTED OVER SRN
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SHOULD MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE LAKES
TOWARD SWRN QUEBEC.  BEHIND THIS LOW...NLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL
ALLOW COOLER / MORE STABLE AIRMASS TO SPILL SWD ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS / NRN MS VALLEY / GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE WARM / MOIST
AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS EWD TO
THE APPALACHIANS.

...MID MS / OH VALLEYS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...
SEVERAL CONVERGENCE AXES / TROUGHS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS
THE MID MS / OH VALLEYS THIS PERIOD S OF SURFACE LOW MOVING SLOWLY
NEWD ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES.  ALTHOUGH CLOUDS / PRECIPITATION FROM
LATE IN THE DAY 1 PERIOD WILL LIKELY LIMIT HEATING ACROSS PARTS OF
THE REGION...VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
SHOULD RESULT IN MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY BY EARLY AFTERNOON
ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE AREA.  THIS WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT -- PARTICULARLY INVOF VARIOUS LOW-LEVEL
BOUNDARIES.  

WITH BROAD BELT OF STRONGER /30 TO 45 KT/ WLY TO SWLY LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL FLOW FORECAST ACROSS THIS REGION...SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
ORGANIZED / SEVERE STORMS.  ALTHOUGH LOCALLY STRONG / DAMAGING WINDS
SHOULD BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT...SOME HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO
OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.  GREATEST TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO
EXIST FROM LOWER MI ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES...WHERE MORE FAVORABLE
LOW-LEVEL VEERING / SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED.  ALTHOUGH SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD TAPER OFF SOME THROUGH THE EVENING WITH DIURNAL AIRMASS
STABILIZATION...STORMS MAY CONTINUE IN SOME AREAS INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

...NRN HIGH PLAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ADVECT ELEVATED MIXED LAYER EWD ABOVE MOIST
LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS OVER THE PLAINS.  THIS COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL ALLOW MODERATELY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE BUT CAPPED
AIRMASS TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON.  MOST LIKELY AREA FOR INITIAL STORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS FROM ERN MT SWD
INTO WRN NEB...WHERE LOW-LEVEL SELY UPSLOPE FLOW AND CONVERGENCE
ALONG LEE TROUGH / SWD-MOVING FRONT WILL ALLOW CAP TO WEAKEN. 
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR NEAR PEAK HEATING ACROSS KS AND SWD
ACROSS PARTS OF W TX NEAR DRYLINE AND OTHER LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARIES.  

WITH LARGE AREA OF SLY / SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH MODERATE WLY
FLOW ALOFT...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT MULTICELL / SUPERCELL
STORMS ACROSS A LARGE AREA.  ALTHOUGH COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL BE
LIMITED BY CAPPING ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE REGION...AREAS OF
HIGHER STORM COVERAGE / SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY EXIST -- BUT ARE
DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE ATTM.  THEREFORE...WILL INCLUDE A LARGE 15%
PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT AREA FOR PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THIS REGION.  STORMS / SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL
JET / WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS.

..GOSS.. 07/03/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.