[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 030731
SWODY2
SPC AC 030729

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT SAT JUL 03 2004

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N
ISN 30 SE ISN 30 NE Y22 35 W HON 20 NNE OMA 30 NNW IRK 15 WNW EVV 20
N HOP 25 N MKL 70 ESE HRO 20 WSW TUL 40 WSW GAG 20 SW EHA 35 W AKO
30 WSW CPR 45 WNW COD 30 S GTF 35 NNE CTB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 S GBN 10 SSW PHX
10 ENE INW 85 ESE PGA 40 SW 4BL 20 NNE U17 15 S MLF 20 NNE DRA 60 N
NID 25 NE FAT 30 E SCK 60 ESE RBL 65 SSE LMT 45 S BNO 45 NE BKE 10
NW LWS 35 NNW 63S ...CONT... 55 NNW MOT 50 ENE BIS 50 SE JMS 35 ENE
AXN 35 SW IWD 70 NNE MQT ...CONT... 35 NE PBG RUT 10 WSW ISP
...CONT... 30 SW PSX 30 SSE AUS 35 SSE BWD 25 ENE SJT 50 WSW SJT 30
SE P07.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH
PLAINS...NRN PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY...

...HIGH PLAINS/NRN PLAINS...
A WELL-DEVELOPED UPPER-TROUGH OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WILL MOVE EWD ON
DAY 2 AFFECTING THE HIGH PLAINS AND NRN PLAINS. AS LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE REGION DURING THE DAY...WARMING SFC TEMPS
WILL CAUSE NUMEROUS STORMS TO INITIATE IN THE MTNS AND IN THE HIGH
PLAINS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 

MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE ISOLATED
SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT ALMOST ANYWHERE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND
NRN PLAINS REGION. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
VERY STRONG...THE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SHIFT EWD OUT OF
THE UPPER TROUGH INTO ERN MT...SWRN ND AND WRN SD WHERE THE
SUPERCELL POTENTIAL APPEARS GREATEST. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND
DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS ESPECIALLY NEAR
PEAK HEATING. A TORNADO OR TWO MAY ALSO OCCUR MAINLY IN THE BACKED
SFC FLOW NORTH TO NORTHEAST OF ANY MESOSCALE SFC LOW THAT DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE REGION.

AN MCS SHOULD DEVELOP AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET GETS GOING ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS...DIVING SEWD INTO SRN SD AND NEB OVERNIGHT.

...CNTRL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY...
THE SRN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM WILL STRENGTHEN BY DAY 2 AS 35 TO
45 OF MID-LEVEL FLOW OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SEVERAL IMPULSES THAT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND INTO
THE MID MS VALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERAL STORM
CLUSTERS SHOULD DEVELOP AND MOVE ESEWD AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING
TROUGHS. ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT THE EXACT POSITION OF
STORM CLUSTERS...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT CELLS WILL FORM IN THE CO
HIGH PLAINS AND MOVE SEWD INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS KS DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS ERN KS AND MOVE EWD INTO MO BY THE EVENING HOURS.

THE MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS
CONSIDERING STRONG INSTABILITY IS FORECAST BY THE ETA AND GFS ACROSS
KS BY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR IN PLACE. THE STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THE ACTIVITY
GOING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND AN MCS SHOULD DEVELOP AND MOVE
SEWD ACROSS THE REGION WITH A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT.

..BROYLES.. 07/03/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.