[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 220541
SWODY2
SPC AC 220540

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 PM CST TUE DEC 21 2004

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM AQQ 25
NNW ABY 35 ENE MCN 25 SW CLT 10 N RDU 30 ESE ECG ...CONT... MLB 15 S
FMY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE CEW 15 N LGC 15
SSE LOZ HLG 45 NNE UCA PWM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THE SERN CONUS...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CONUS IS FORECAST TO BECOME EVEN MORE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED THIS PERIOD AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EWD.  INITIAL SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH -- EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE TN VALLEY AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD -- WILL LIFT NEWD AWAY FROM THE MORE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHEAST.  HOWEVER...COLD FRONT WILL
NONETHELESS MOVE STEADILY EWD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES AND
EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE.  TRAILING PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ACROSS S FL AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES FROM NC SWD TO FL...
THOUGH STRONGER UPPER FORCING IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NW OF THE
REGION...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION
THIS PERIOD.  LOW 60S DEWPOINTS SHOULD SPREAD NWD INTO THE ERN
CAROLINAS AHEAD OF FRONT...BUT WEAK LAPSE RATES DUE TO CLOUDS /
ONGOING PRECIPITATION ALONG FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR
DESTABILIZATION.  

NONETHELESS...DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WILL REMAIN STRONG ACROSS THIS
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD -- PARTICULARLY FROM NRN FL NWD. 
THEREFORE...DESPITE RELATIVELY LIMITED INSTABILITY...A THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WINDS OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WITH A FEW STRONGER
STORMS / STORM SEGMENTS WILL EXIST -- MAINLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS PARTS OF GA AND THE CAROLINAS.

..GOSS.. 12/22/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.