[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 211706
SWODY2
SPC AC 211705

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1105 AM CST TUE DEC 21 2004

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E
PSX 40 WNW HOU POE ESF MEI SEM MGM DHN MAI AQQ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE CRP 35 ENE LRD
COT SAT JKL 5I3 40 SW BLF 40 SSE TLH.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS GULF COASTAL PLAIN FROM SE TX
TO WRN FL PANHANDLE...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF WRN/CENTRAL
CONUS THROUGH DAY-2...RESULTING IN PRONOUNCED LONGWAVE TROUGH
DOWNSTREAM FROM NERN PACIFIC REX BLOCK.  THIS WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED SWD PLUNGE OF SEASONALLY COLD AIR MASS NOW COVERING MUCH
OF CENTRAL PLAINS...UPPER MS VALLEY AND SRN HIGH PLAINS. ASSOCIATED
SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS...NWRN GA...AND
SRN AL BY END OF PERIOD.  

MEANWHILE...AIR MASS MODIFICATION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WARM
SECTOR...AIDED BY MID-UPPER 70S F SST OBSERVED IN CENTRAL/SRN OPEN
GULF.  BY DAY-2...NEAR EQUILIBRIUM DEW POINTS OF UPPER 60S F ARE
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OPEN GULF...WITH MID 60S OVER SHELF
WATERS...AND LOW-MID 60S POSSIBLE OVER COASTAL AREAS.

...GULF COAST STATES...
SCATTERED-NUMEROUS TSTMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT BEGINNING OF PERIOD
ACROSS PORTIONS SW TX AND LA..IN LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME...ALONG/AHEAD
OF INITIAL COLD FRONT. REF SPC DAY-1 OUTLOOK FOR DETAILS. EXPECT
ASSOCIATED BAND OF CONVECTION TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS NRN GULF AND
ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS...WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR AND INFLOW LAYER
BUOYANCY TO SUPPORT SEVERE POTENTIAL.  MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
GUSTS...WITH ISOLATED HAIL POSSIBLE.  A FEW SUPERCELLS MAY FORM
AHEAD OF FRONTAL BAND OVER GULF...MOVING ASHORE THEN WEAKENING
INLAND AS THEY ENCOUNTER WEAKER INSTABILITY.  TORNADO PROBABILITIES
THEREFORE SHOULD BE GREATEST ALONG IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS WHERE
RICHEST BOUNDARY LAYER THETAE WILL BE...AND LIFTED PARCELS CLOSEST
TO BEING SFC-BASED.

PRECURSORY CLOUDS/PRECIP AND SELY BOUNDARY LAYER TRAJECTORIES FROM
INCOMPLETELY MODIFIED CONTINENTAL AIR MASS WILL EACH CONTRIBUTE TO
WEAKENING INSTABILITY WITH INLAND EXTENT.  HOWEVER...BECAUSE OF
STRENGTH/DEPTH OF BAROCLINIC ZONE...SLAB OF FORCED FRONTAL ASCENT
MAY YIELD NARROW AND WELL DEFINED SQUALL LINE ACROSS PORTIONS INLAND
MS/AL...TN AND NWRN GA...EMBEDDED WITHIN BROADER PRECIP AREA.  A FEW
GUSTS WITH SUCH A LINE MAY REACH SVR LIMITS...WITH OCCASIONAL WIND
DAMAGE POSSIBLE.

..EDWARDS.. 12/21/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.