[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 210633
SWODY2
SPC AC 210632

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1232 AM CST TUE DEC 21 2004

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE
GLS 40 NW LCH 10 SE ESF 40 SSW JAN 35 WSW TCL 30 S ANB 10 NE ABY 30
WNW CTY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE CRP 30 NW VCT
45 SW CLL 40 ESE CLL 10 SSW LFK 25 W SHV 40 E ELD 25 SW UOX 50 N MSL
40 NNW CSV 35 S 5I3 PSK 15 SSW DAN 35 WSW FLO 25 WSW SSI 40 SSE CTY.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...
HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE CONUS THIS PERIOD...WITH LARGE-SCALE TROUGH AND CYCLONIC
FLOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE CONUS.  SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN
LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW -- INITIALLY FORECAST NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION -- WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE SRN
PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT INITIALLY FORECAST FROM THE UPPER OH /
TN VALLEYS SWWD INTO LA / SERN TX SHOULD SHARPEN / MOVE EWD AHEAD OF
UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH...AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH A POSITION
ROUGHLY ALONG THE APPALACHIANS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. 

...UPPER TX COAST EWD TO SWRN GA / THE FL PANHANDLE...
RAIN / THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
ACROSS PARTS OF ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION IN ZONE OF
STRONG QG FORCING AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH / JET
STREAK.

THOUGH SLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AHEAD OF
FRONT...LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS OVER THE NRN GULF REMAINS INCOMPLETELY
MODIFIED...WITH GENERALLY LOW TO MID 50S DEWPOINTS OBSERVED ATTM. 
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY OVERDONE WITH DEGREE OF MOISTURE
RETURN...AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS
/ PRECIPITATION SUGGEST ONLY LIMITED DESTABILIZATION LIKELY.

NONETHELESS...DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD SHOULD INCREASE WITH TIME OVER
THE WARM SECTOR...BECOMING SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED / ROTATING
CONVECTION.  THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE GULF
COAST REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH PRIMARY THREATS
BEING LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO.  THREAT
SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED HOWEVER DUE TO OVERALL LACK OF INSTABILITY.

..GOSS.. 12/21/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.