[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 061736
SWODY2
SPC AC 061735

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1135 AM CST MON DEC 06 2004

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW
MCN CEW 10 NW MOB 35 S LUL 35 W TCL 25 SW CHA 30 NE ATL 15 WNW MCN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW CRE 70 N AYS
ABY PFN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N BUF 50 NE BFD 20
W IPT 30 SW AVP 25 E MSV 25 WSW EEN PSM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S LCH 40 SSW GWO
35 S MKL 40 NE PAH 35 NNW SLO 20 NE SPI 30 WSW CGX 50 W MBS 30 ENE
MBS.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH...

...SYNOPSIS...
POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH NOW EJECTING NEWD FROM ERN NM/W TX AREA WILL
RACE NEWD FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY.
ASSOCIATED STRONG SURFACE CYCLONE WILL TRACK NEWD FROM IL TO SRN
QUEBEC DURING THE PERIOD AS SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS
ERN NEW ENGLAND AND MOVES OVER THE GULF OF MAINE TUESDAY NIGHT. A
STRONGLY FORCED PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING
EARLY IN THE PERIOD FROM EAST OF THE LOW CENTER SWD ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY AND CONTINUING SWWD TO THE MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER. THIS LINE
WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE MORNING WHILE STRONGEST LARGE SCALE
FORCING BECOMES INCREASINGLY REMOVED FROM HIGHER THETAE AIRMASS
ACROSS THE SOUTH.

...SOUTH...
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD EXIST EARLY IN THE DAY FROM
MIDDLE TN SWD ACROSS AL TO MOBILE BAY/WRN FL PNHDL AREA AS A
STRONGLY FORCED SQUALL LINE MOVES EAST. DESPITE WEAK LAPSE RATES...
AIRMASS ACROSS THESE AREAS WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY MOIST WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S CONTRIBUTING TO MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG.
STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL
HEIGHT FALL CENTER WILL BE LIFTING AWAY FROM THE REGION DURING THE
DAY...MOVING FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE ERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH
EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WEAKENING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
TRAILING FRONTAL ZONE AND LATEST ETA WAS SUGGEST DIMINISHING
CONVECTIVE QPF WITHIN THIS ZONE...ACROSS AL/GA...DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WIND FIELDS...HOWEVER...WILL REMAIN VERY STRONG ACROSS
THE SOUTH WITH 60-70KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOW
LEVEL MOIST AXIS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT...IN ADDITION TO EARLY DAY
SEVERE POTENTIAL...A COUPLE OF LATE DAY TSTMS MIGHT DEVELOP WHERE
STALLING FRONT IMPINGES ON RESIDUAL INSTABILITY. A COUPLE OF
HAIL/WIND REPORTS COULD ALSO OCCUR WITH THIS CONVECTION.

...TN/KY TO OH...
LOW TOPPED SQUALL LINE DRIVEN BY INTENSE DYNAMIC FORCING AND SHEAR
MAY ACCOMPANY THE SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO
THE AFTERNOON. A FEW BOWING SEGMENTS WITHIN THIS LINE COULD PRODUCE
ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS. AT PRESENT IT APPEARS THAT INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN TOO WEAK/LIMITED TO SUSTAIN A HIGHER PROBABILITY WIND THREAT.

..CARBIN.. 12/06/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.