[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 060645
SWODY2
SPC AC 060644

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1244 AM CST MON DEC 06 2004

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW
MCN CEW 10 NW MOB 25 SSE LUL 10 SSW HSV 20 SSW CHA 30 NE ATL 15 WNW
MCN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW 7R4 15 ENE MKL
30 SSE BMG 30 NE MIE 15 NNE TOL ...CONT... 10 SW BUF 35 WSW ELM 10
WSW AVP 10 WSW JFK ...CONT... 25 ESE SAV 30 NE AYS 20 NW VLD AQQ.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SERN
U.S....

...SYNOPSIS...

VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW DROPPING INTO SRN CA WILL EJECT EWD
INTO THE OH VALLEY TUESDAY AND INTO THE NERN STATES TUESDAY NIGHT.
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY AND SERN STATES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT.


...SERN STATES...

GULF MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70
WILL HAVE ADVECTED INTO PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN MS...AL AND GA WITH LOW
TO MID 60S FARTHER NORTH INTO TN. DESPITE INFLUX OF RICHER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO WEAK LAPSE
RATES AND AREAS OF ONGOING PRECIPITATION/CLOUDS. MLCAPE GENERALLY
AOB 1000 J/KG IS EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST AND AOB 500 J/KG FARTHER N
TOWARD TN. PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING FROM
THE OH AND TN VALLEYS SWD INTO PARTS OF MS AND AL. KINEMATIC AND
LOW-MID LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES WILL STILL BE STRONG EARLY TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE DAY
AS LOW LEVEL JET LIFTS NEWD AWAY FROM THE BETTER INSTABILITY.
TENDENCY FOR THE STRONGER FORCING AND LOW LEVEL JET TO WEAKEN WITH
TIME MAY SERVE AS AN OVERALL LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
HOWEVER...KINEMATIC PROFILES MAY REMAIN SUFFICIENT THROUGH EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON TO SUPPORT A THREAT OF PRIMARILY ISOLATED STRONG-DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.


...OH VALLEY...

POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS ACCOMPANYING LOW TOPPED
CONVECTION MAY EXIST WITH PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND GIVEN STRENGTH
OF LOW LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR. HOWEVER...WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT
OVERALL THREAT. THERE IS SOME CHANCE THAT OTHER LOW TOPPED
CONVECTION MIGHT DEVELOP FARTHER W ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON WHERE STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE
HEATING WILL EXIST IN DRY SLOT REGION. HOWEVER...TENDENCY FOR LOW
LEVEL FLOW TO WEAKEN AND VEER IN PRE-FRONTAL ZONE AND POTENTIAL FOR
MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SUGGEST FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
WILL NOT BE DEEP OR STRONG ENOUGH TO INITIATE STORMS.


...ERN CAROLINAS THROUGH ERN VA...

STORMS WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL HAVE BEEN STABILIZED BY WEDGE FRONT THAT
WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF ERODING. RICHER MOISTURE FROM THE GULF
STREAM WILL LIKELY ADVECT INTO ERN PORTIONS OF NC WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. HOWEVER...GIVEN WEAK LAPSE
RATES...INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN VERY MARGINAL. THE LIMITED
INSTABILITY AND EXPECTED LATE ARRIVAL OF ANY REMAINING FORCING FOR
ASCENT SUGGEST OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IN THIS AREA SHOULD BE LOW. THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR STORMS TO INTENSIFY IN BAROCLINIC ZONE
LINGERING OFF THE COAST OF NC AS FORCING FOR ASCENT ARRIVES TUESDAY
NIGHT.

..DIAL.. 12/06/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.