[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 080635
SWODY2
SPC AC 080634

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1234 AM CST WED DEC 08 2004

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E JAX 20 W CTY
...CONT... 20 NE GLS 30 N POE 35 WSW GLH 35 W UOX 25 S MKL 60 WSW
BNA 15 SSW BNA 20 W CSV 15 WSW TYS 30 WSW AVL 10 NNE SPA 25 ENE CLT
30 S DAN 60 N RWI 35 SE RIC 35 NE ORF.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN U.S. WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO THE
CNTRL/ERN STATES THURSDAY. VORT MAX NOW OVER AZ EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
BROADER UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT ENEWD INTO THE TN VALLEY BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. STRONGER UPSTREAM IMPULSE WILL DROP SEWD INTO THE WRN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
AMPLIFICATION OF BROADER TROUGH OVER THE MS VALLEY AND SERN STATES.
PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP SEWD FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO
THE OH VALLEY BY LATE THURSDAY WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND INTO THE SERN STATES.

MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES WITH THE ETA BEING A LITTLE SLOWER AND
MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE GFS.

...LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH SERN STATES...

RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S RESIDES OVER
THE CNTRL GULF S OF A STATIONARY BOUNDARY. AS LEE TROUGH CONTINUES
TO DEVELOP OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS AND THE SERN U.S. SURFACE RIDGE
SHIFTS EWD...SLY FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE GULF NWD INTO
THE SERN STATES WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE RICHER MOISTURE TO
ADVECT INLAND. DESPITE THE RETURN OF RICHER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...MODEST LAPSE RATES AND AREAS OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS  AND
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY LIMIT INSTABILITY. MUCAPE GENERALLY BELOW
500 J/KG IS EXPECTED WELL INLAND AND AOB 1000 J/KG NEAR THE COAST.

BAND OF CONVECTION ACCOMPANYING LEAD SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY BE IN PROGRESS FROM PARTS OF THE LOWER MS
VALLEY NEWD THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE SERN STATES EARLY THURSDAY.
DESPITE BEING EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR
PROFILES...MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED AND
MARGINAL INSTABILITY SUGGESTS OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE LOW.
BY AFTERNOON...CONTINUED INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE AND BETTER
INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER...NEAR SURFACE BASED
STORMS NEAR THE COAST. HOWEVER...THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW IS
FORECAST TO LIFT NEWD AWAY FROM THIS AREA AS LEAD SHORTWAVE MIGRATES
TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC.

SOME DESTABILIZATION MAY OCCUR UPSTREAM NEAR THE COLD FRONT IN WAKE
OF INITIAL CONVECTIVE BAND IF LOW CLOUDS CAN MIX OUT. FORCING FOR
ASCENT IN VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY MAY INCREASE AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AMPLIFIES DURING THE EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS TO
DEVELOP.

VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
STORMS WITH STORMS DEVELOPING WITHIN LEAD CONVECTIVE BAND AS WELL AS
ALONG THE COLD FRONT...CONDITIONAL UPON THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE
TIMING/EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN AND POTENTIAL FOR
LIMITED INSTABILITY SUGGEST MORE THAN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE
NOT WARRANTED AT TIME. AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT MAY BE NECESSARY IN
LATER OUTLOOKS ONCE THESE DETAILS BECOME CLEARER.

..DIAL.. 12/08/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.