[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 051716
SWODY2
SPC AC 051715

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1115 AM CST SUN DEC 05 2004

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE
CRP 15 SW LRD ...CONT... 45 NW DRT 20 ENE SJT 50 WNW MWL 35 W ADM 25
WSW MKO 20 SSE UMN 40 SE VIH 20 WSW SLO 40 SSE MTO BMG 50 W LUK 20 N
LEX 20 WSW LOZ 15 NE CHA 40 NW AUO 15 SSW PNS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW CLE 10 S CAK 35
SW HLG 35 SSE PKB 40 ENE 5I3 20 ENE HSS 20 W AHN 45 S CSG PFN
...CONT... 55 SSW MRF 45 SE LBB 20 ENE END 15 N SZL 15 SSE PIA 25
SSW SBN 20 NE TOL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN TX
INTO THE LOWER/MID MS AND OH VALLEYS...

...SYNOPSIS...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND CURRENT LDS DATA SHOW A QUITE
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SEWD OFF THE SRN CA COAST. THIS
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE AND INTO THE DESERT SW DURING
THE DAY 1 PERIOD...PRIOR TO EJECTING EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE
MS VALLEY REGION ON MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...SURFACE
CYCLONE ATTENDANT TO THIS SYSTEM WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP SEWD FROM
ERN CO INTO OK PRIOR TO MOVING/DEVELOPING RAPIDLY NEWD INTO THE MID
MS VALLEY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MEANWHILE...TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN
PLAINS INTO THE MS VALLEY AND WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS OF SEVERE
TSTM DEVELOPMENT.

...POTENTIALLY ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
ARKLATEX INTO LOWER MS VALLEY...

...TX EWD AND NEWD INTO THE LOWER/MID MS AND OH VALLEYS...
CURRENT MESOANALYSIS INDICATES WARM FRONT STEADILY MOVING NWD ONTO
THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX AND CNTRL GULF COASTS WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S DEWPOINTS COMMON OVER THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO. PERSISTENT SLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW /AIDED BY BOTH SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LIFTING
NEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND APPROACHING UPSTREAM SYSTEM/ WILL
ALLOW WARM/MOIST SECTOR TO DEVELOP NWD ACROSS THE SRN LOW PLAINS AND
LOWER/MID MS VALLEY WITH 60 F DEWPOINTS EXPECTED AS FAR N AS THE
LOWER OH VALLEY BY MONDAY NIGHT. WHEN COUPLED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH EML OBSERVED ON 12Z BRO/CRP
SOUNDINGS...EXPECT MODERATE INSTABILITY /I.E. MLCAPES OF 1000-1500
J/KG/ TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
AIR MASS STABILITY WILL LIKELY INCREASE WITH NWD EXTENT ACROSS
PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR OWING TO WEAKER LAPSE RATES AND DECREASING
AMOUNTS OF BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE.

LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IS RELATIVELY CONSISTENT WITH
PREVIOUS RUN IN SPREADING STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE HEIGHT FALLS AND
CONCOMITANT FORCING ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS REGION MONDAY INTO
THE MID MS VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT AN INCREASE
IN TSTM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY MID DAY ALONG COLD FRONT AS IT
ENCOUNTERS WRN EDGE OF DEVELOPING INSTABILITY AXIS OVER PORTIONS OF
CNTRL/N-CNTRL TX. PERSISTENT DOWNSTREAM MOISTENING/LOW-LEVEL WAA MAY
BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME CAP AND INITIATE ADDITIONAL STORMS FARTHER
E ALONG RETREATING WARM FRONT OR WITHIN FREE WARM SECTOR OVER
PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX REGION. WITH TIME...EXPECT STORMS TO
CONSOLIDATE ALONG COLD FRONT...MOVING/DEVELOPING NEWD INTO THE LOWER
OH/WRN TN AND LOWER MS VALLEYS OVERNIGHT.

PRESENCE OF 75-85 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK LIFTING NEWD FROM TX INTO
THE OH VALLEY IN CONJUNCTION WITH 45-55 KT LLJ ACROSS SAME GENERAL
AREA WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AREA OF WIND PROFILES
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRIMARILY ISOLATED TORNADOES AND
DAMAGING WINDS. GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION INTO THE WRN TN AND LOWER MS VALLEYS WHERE
BEST COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ARE FORECAST
TO CO-EXIST. UNCERTAINTY IN CONVECTIVE MODE AND DEGREE OF AIR MASS
DESTABILIZATION PRECLUDE A CATEGORICAL INCREASE ATTM...HOWEVER
PORTIONS OF AREA MAY WELL BE UPGRADED TO A MODERATE RISK ON
SUBSEQUENT DAY 1 OUTLOOKS.

..MEAD.. 12/05/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.